Buy the rumor, sell the news. After the Bitcoin price soared, the landing could come faster and stronger than expected: this is the prediction of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. According to him, the market could experience a big crash on January 20, the day of Donald Trump's inauguration.
on December 19, 2024 at 6:00 p.m.
Bitcoin will experience a “brutal collapse” on January 20, according to Arthur Hayes
Will the Bitcoin bullrun end on January 20, 2025? This is a possibility according to Arthur Hayes. In a long article published on Slack, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX engaged in an in-depth analysis of the global economy, the challenges awaiting Donald Trump and the constraints he will have to face.
The main constraint is time. The Republicans currently control both chambers of the Senate, but Americans will quickly return to the polls. To guarantee his control over legislative power, Donald Trump needs quick victories. According to Arthur Hayes:
Donald Trump has a year to show he has made progress on some of his goals to help Republicans maintain their hold on the House of Representatives and the Senate.
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When Donald Trump won, the crypto market exploded. The candidate's promises left little doubt about the future of Bitcoin. But the president will only have a very limited time to tackle many projects and according to Arthur Hayes, the creation of a strategic reserve in Bitcoin will not be the priority, because it would not allow the government to guarantee a rapid victory to secure the next elections.
It could therefore be that the market is in a phase of “ buy the rumor, sell the news “. The election initiated a wave of enthusiasm that would live until confronted with political reality, what Arthur Hayes calls ” buy the rumor, sell the fact “. The latter, who now runs a Family Office, has adapted its investments to its vision by reducing its exposure to Bitcoin.
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Jerome Powell changes his tune
This analysis only engages those who believe it. That being said, other news is in line with this analysis. Jerome Powell, who made headlines in the crypto press recently for calling Bitcoin “ digital gold » recently declared that the American Federal Reserve (FED) had “not no right to own Bitcoins.”
However, according to Senator Cynthia Lummis' proposal, a possible Bitcoin reserve would be under the aegis of the Treasury Department and not the Federal Reserve. The Treasury Department, led by Scott Bessent, which will be at the heart of the rapid victory that Donald Trump needs.
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According to Arthur Hayes, the best way to get rapid results would be a strong devaluation of the dollar against gold. No time for Scott Bessent to worry about creating a strategic reserve for Bitcoin at the same time.
After the inauguration of Donald Trump, the market will become aware of the scale of the projects, and realize that the future in which Bitcoin has replaced gold is not for now. This cold shower of realism, in contrast to the market fever, could lead to thermal shock which would perhaps plunge the market into a coma for an indefinite period.
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Source: Arthur Hayes Newsletter
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Investments in cryptocurrencies are risky. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with high return potential involves high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your capacity to lose part of this savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital
Cryptocurrency expert, Marc-Antoine began his journey in Web 3 alongside David Prinçay (current president of Binance France) in the French Cryptocurrency Club. Since then, it is by writing articles in the best-known crypto media in France that he has spread the good word. If you've read an article about crypto, there's a good chance you've read one of his articles. NFT, Blockchain, Web 3, DeFi, there is no sector that is foreign to it. And don't ask him what the next coin to buy is: it's a maximalist Bitcoin (yes, no one is perfect).
Marc-Antoine Caen Poletti
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