NAccording to estimates by the American government, China could react to Nancy Pelosi’s forthcoming visit to Taipei with rocket launches in the Taiwan Strait, among other things. The “speaker” of the House of Representatives is expected in the Taiwanese capital in the early afternoon German time. According to the Financial Times newspaper, a meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen is planned for Wednesday.
For the first time, the American government has publicly stated what military steps it expects Beijing to take in response to the visit. In addition to rocket launches, it is conceivable that Chinese military aircraft and ships could cross the so-called center line in the Taiwan Strait, said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby in Washington. The center line marks an informal buffer zone that has been largely respected by both sides for decades, though Chinese warplanes have crossed it a few times since 2019.
Washington also expects high-profile military exercises. The Chinese military has announced new military exercises for the period from Wednesday to Saturday and has closed several sea areas in the South China Sea to shipping for this purpose. The announcement was prominently reported by state and party media, raising expectations that the country is planning a show of force.
Kirby’s list of possible scenarios did not include any of the extreme options that nationalist bloggers in China had floated, including sending Chinese warplanes to observe, intercept or even shoot down Pelosi’s plane. Such an escalation is unlikely to be in Beijing’s interest.
Image: FAZ
The American government tried to downplay the significance of Pelosi’s journey. Both Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Security Council spokesman Kirby noted that members of Congress regularly travel to Taiwan, “including this year.” In addition, Pelosi is not the first “speaker” of the House of Representatives to visit Taiwan. Republican Newt Gingrich had done that before her, 25 years ago.
Pelosi’s decision probably independent of the White House
“If China tries to create some kind of crisis or otherwise escalate tensions, that would be Beijing’s sole responsibility,” Blinken said. There is “no reason for Beijing” to use the visit as “an excuse to step up aggressive military activity in and around the Taiwan Straits,” Kirby said.
Blinken and Kirby struggled to keep President Joe Biden out of the line of fire. Pelosi made her decision to travel independently of the White House. Biden and she did not speak directly to each other on this issue. Biden had previously distanced himself from Pelosi’s plans, saying the US military didn’t think such a trip was “a good idea right now.”
Nevertheless, Beijing senses an agreement among party friends and sees the trip as a further step towards rapprochement between Washington and Taipei. Beijing insinuates that the Biden government could work towards independence for Taiwan in the longer term with the aim of using Taiwan’s geostrategic position to curb China’s rise. Against this background, Security Council spokesman Kirby said: “We have said that we do not support Taiwan’s independence”. President Biden communicated this to Chinese President Xi Jinping in their phone call last week.
