WLadimir Putin dropped his announcement of “referendums” in eastern Ukraine and the mobilization of his reservists in the middle of the general debate at the United Nations. Anyone who believed that the Western heads of state and government in New York were about to convene an emergency meeting was disappointed.
The background was that they first wanted to wait and see whether Moscow was serious about extending the nuclear protective shield to areas annexed in violation of international law. The Germans have their own reasons for delaying a reaction: For some time now, they have been using their supposedly close coordination with their allies to hide behind them.
So it was no coincidence that Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz did not find the time to talk to find a solution to the urgent problem of which new weapon systems could be used to support Kiev’s successful counter-offensive. The question of whether the West should also supply battle tanks reveals a fundamental strategic problem. The answer depends on what threatens from the western point of view at the end of the war: Do you want an unqualified victory for Ukraine – in other words, a defeat for Russia? Or is it feared that Putin could never accept such a thing and that is why World War III begins?
There is no need for coordination
The chancellor keeps saying that there will be no going it alone. Germany itself was responsible for a momentous solo effort: the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which disregarded Washington’s concerns as well as the security interests of Eastern Europe. Scholz has corrected this serious geopolitical error. However, he is about to gamble away the trust that he gained on the other side of the Atlantic with his “Zeitenwende” speech. His statements about battle tanks suggest a need for coordination among the alliance partners, which does not exist in this form.
The chancellor’s office says that Berlin always coordinates with Washington before a new weapon system is delivered, and that they intend to continue to do so. Howitzers and multiple rocket launchers were delivered together. According to this logic, German Leopard 2 main battle tanks could only be delivered if Washington also made its Abrams tanks available.
In fact, the American government does not insist on such simultaneous action. She wouldn’t mind if Europe provided battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. She just doesn’t say it publicly so as not to put pressure on the German government. And: According to Washington, the logistical problems associated with tanks of German design are easier to master than those that would have to be mastered with American main battle tanks.
It is true that Biden is also acting cautiously and sees the danger of the war escalating. In addition, he also harbors distrust: this became apparent recently when he initially spoke out against delivering long-range missiles to Kyiv. This in turn makes it easy for the chancellor to continue his game of hide-and-seek. Scholz is very careful to formulate in such a way that later decisions do not look like corrections. That could be described as clever – if it weren’t the opposite of the political leadership that is so much invoked these days.
