Dhe only thing the Russian army can do against the Ukrainians is mass. It has tons of tanks, tons of artillery shells, and now tons of Iranian drones and fresh soldiers. However, according to experts, all this is of poor quality. The tanks are old, their rubber parts have crumbled, the artillery pieces are worn out.
The recruits that Putin drafted are even more inexperienced than any previous ones. Among them are alcoholics and criminals who could endanger their comrades. Maybe they yell around at night or light a fag, which the Ukrainians then use as a target. Nevertheless, quantity has a quality of its own. You can stop tanks with traps, or with tens of thousands of flesh and blood people. You can attack a city with a few remote-controlled missiles or with hundreds of Iranian drones.
On top of that, the mudslinging will soon begin, and the Ukrainian advance will falter. Tanks and jeeps get stuck. According to all experts, Putin will use this respite to rebuild his overstretched army. This is dangerous for the Ukrainians. It could undo their achievements of the past few months.
They were based on a particularly effective use of Western weapons. At that time, the Russians were gathering in the Donbass and advancing meter by meter under cover of their artillery fire. Polish main battle tanks, artillery pieces and multiple rocket launchers, long requested by the Ukrainian military, finally arrived from the West. The temptation was great to immediately throw all this material to the front. After all, it was about the existence of the country. But the Ukrainians did something that was very courageous in their situation: they waited. They didn’t send everything to the front, but made a plan.
It was amazing that the Russians fell for the feint
By May, Ukrainian military officials already knew that the Russian offensive would peak in a few months. The attack was overextended. The Russians could not dig into their positions without leaving gaps. The salient was too big and they had too few soldiers to hold it. The Prussian military scientist Carl von Clausewitz called this the “culmination point”.
The Ukrainians debated when the Russians would reach theirs. Many assumed that it would be so far in late summer. There was no better time than now to deal maximum damage with a counterattack. So they consulted with American and British military experts how best to carry it out.
There was disagreement about the size of the operation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj called for the big hit. He wanted to prove to the world and his compatriots that Ukraine could not only defend itself, but also reconquer vast swaths of land. But the Americans warned against too large an offensive, they feared heavy losses. They are particularly risky for Ukraine.
Despite Western aid, it still has a hard time replacing destroyed tanks and guns. So nothing could go wrong. Therefore, the Ukrainians staged a large-scale attack with Western advisers, as Zelenskyy had requested. The simulation lasted from the first advance to the end of the operation. It was a fiasco. In the simulation, Ukraine lost, Russia won. It was a shock, but a healing one. Because now the Western military advisors were working with the Ukrainians on a plan that would actually bring victory.
