Great Britain: successor race between chess and poker

Dhe bitter battle to succeed Prime Minister Liz Truss raged on phones and in back rooms over the weekend. The calls for agreement before a possible election act in the parliamentary group were ignored by the three candidates in question. Their behavior was sometimes reminiscent of chess players and sometimes of poker players.

After Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak also declared his candidacy on Sunday. The former Treasury Secretary, who narrowly defeated Truss in the last party election, touted his record as minister in his brief written statement via Twitter and pledged to place “integrity, professionalism and accountability” at the core of his administration. In doing so, he probably wanted to set himself apart from Boris Johnson, who was considered the main rival at the time.

Mordaunt, for whom only two dozen of the necessary 100 MEPs had publicly spoken out, assured the BBC on Sunday that she “came out to win”, but most saw her role in the power struggle elsewhere: as a kingmaker who favored one or the other renounced.

The numbers of supporters, which determine the candidates’ progress, are not objective markers of orientation, but political weapons. High numbers motivate your own camp and demotivate your opponents. Sunak could rightly claim to have the largest following among MPs on Sunday. Those who followed the election statements came up to 130 – more than a third of the parliamentary group.

But the other two candidates let it be known that they are also supported by more than 100 MPs – most of them just haven’t publicly declared themselves yet. Even public statements are not always clear, such as that of Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who spoke of an “inclination towards Boris”. Newspapers on Sunday totaled 24 nominations for Mordaunt and around 60 for Johnson.

More and more MPs spoke out against Johnson

Who intercedes for whom is crucial, but almost as important is who intercedes against whom. By midday on Saturday, Johnson seemed to have the momentum on his side. When he landed at Gatwick Airport in the morning after a long flight from the Caribbean and waved briefly to the cameras, his possible candidacy dominated the newspapers and nominations poured in in a steady stream.

Economics Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg was among them, as was former Culture Minister Nadine Dorries, as well as prominent MPs such as Michael Fabricant. He also tweeted the Johnson camp’s main argument: “He (Johnson) is the only MP with legitimacy because he was overwhelmingly elected by the whole country. Without him, the call for a new election will grow.” That afternoon, MP James Duddridge, one of Johnson’s campaign aides, tweeted: “New – Boris Johnson has over 100 supporters.”

After that, things seemed to change. The fact that the number in the Sunak camp was doubted should have been accepted by the Johnson camp. “Of course they do, what else?” was the reply. Johnson’s real problem was that more and more MPs who had previously been among his supporters now spoke out against him. Former Brexit Secretary David Frost said the party must now “move on”. A return of Johnson carries the risk that “the chaos and confusion of the past few months will be repeated”.

Dominic Raab, who served as Johnson’s deputy in the cabinet for two and a half years, assured that he “still has a lot of respect for his former boss”, but drew attention to the committee of inquiry, which is currently examining whether Johnson was in parliament during the Partygate affair lied to. “I don’t see how a return to the political front can be reconciled with the prospect of the committee beginning its hearings anytime soon,” he said. Johnson will therefore lack attention and concentration for government business.