AWhen Jair Bolsonaro was elected president in 2018, many Brazilians thought they were liberated. Freed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Labor Party, PT, which ruled Brazil for over 13 years. Lula da Silva initially led Brazil through a golden age: the economy was booming, the country was one of the big ones in the world and millions of poor people became consumers.
The Brazilians were all the more disappointed when this time was over, when the upturn gave way to stagnation – and a gigantic corruption scandal came to light. Everyone was involved, many ended up in prison. But many Brazilians blamed one politician for the scandal: Lula da Silva. He was put on trial, imprisoned and seemed politically dead. The hatred that had built up against Lula da Silva and his PT was the breeding ground for Bolsonaro.
Four years later, Lula da Silva is back. The Supreme Court had annulled the trials against him in a controversial verdict over procedural errors and the bias of the judge (who later became Bolsonaro’s justice minister), paving the way for him to run again. On Sunday, Lula narrowly defeated Bolsonaro in the runoff with less than 51 percent of the valid votes.
How is it possible for this man to come back to power? The answer is to be found above all in Bolsonaro, not in Lula. Bolsonaro had been a backbencher in the House of Representatives for decades. His trademarks were confrontation and aggression against anyone who thought differently.
Bolsonaro never wanted to be there for all Brazilians
The captain of the reserve and glorifier of the dictatorship could never shed this characteristic, not even as president. When the pandemic hit, he scoffed at science, vaccines, and even the dead. Bolsonaro wanted nothing to do with climate change and the importance of the rainforest. When Europe showed concern about rainforest destruction, he turned his back on long-term partners. At least as terrifying were Bolsonaro’s attacks on democratic institutions, particularly the Supreme Court. He felt patronized by him, so he openly threatened it.
Bolsonaro has not matured into a statesman in the four years of his presidency, but has always remained the aggressive provocateur. Bolsonaro has never shown the ability or even the desire to be a president for all of Brazil. It was enough for him to keep his ardent followers happy.
If Bolsonaro’s 2018 election would not have been possible without Lula da Silva, the reverse is true today: Brazilians were willing by a slim majority to vote Lula da Silva back into office in order to get rid of Bolsonaro. It wasn’t his victory, Lula said, but that of a major democratic project. In fact, Lula da Silva managed to unite political forces and personalities deep in the middle. Still, it’s a disgrace to Brazilian politics that Brazilians had no choice but to face the two widely hated politicians.
Lula isn’t the same anymore
Lula da Silva hasn’t lost his ability to inspire hope. He wants to end hunger and poverty once again, restart the wheel of the economy, put the country back on the world stage and stop the destruction of the rainforest. What’s more, he wants to reunite the deeply divided country and be a president for everyone.
Thousands of supporters celebrated Lula da Silva’s victory, here in the streets of Rio de Janeiro.
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Image: dpa
It is questionable whether he will succeed. Lula isn’t the same as when he won the election twenty years ago. He has not yet lost his skills as a negotiator and statesman, but he has lost a large part of his credibility. That means he has less power. Lula da Silva will have to fight almost as high a rejection in office as Bolsonaro. A lot of Brazilians really hate him and they won’t stop overnight. The country is torn, the economic outlook is uncertain, and Lula will not find the means in the state budget to carry out his promises. In addition, he will face a cool headwind from Congress.
As if that weren’t enough, a well-known unknown is added: Bolsonaro. He won’t make it easy for his nemesis Lula da Silva. As president, he still has two months to go until he changes office on January 1st. Observers fear that during this time he will still destroy what can be destroyed. His most loyal followers will help him in this.
Before the election, Bolsonaro even threatened not to accept the election result in the style of Donald Trump. It doesn’t have to be that way though. But Bolsonaro holed up in the presidential palace on Sunday and went to sleep without saying a word. He did not even open the door to ministers. Once again, Bolsonaro missed the chance to be what he has rarely been in the past four years: a statesman.
