While Bitcoin and high finance are awaiting US PCE inflation figures and the results of the legislative elections in France, we are now 67 days after the 4th BTC halving and the market remains in sideways transition between 56,000 and $73,000. What is missing to finally consider exiting from the top of this range and entering into price discovery?
Patience, the Bitcoin purge will soon be over
The intransigence of the American Federal Reserve (FED) regarding the prospects of its monetary policy, combined with the uncertainty regarding a possible resurgence of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe after the French legislative elections are 2 factors which combine and maintain BTC in the lateral phase that it has been developing since its historic record of last Wednesday, March 13.
In the meantime, the 4th BTC halving has taken place and we are now 67 days after this crucial “monetary” event for the underlying trend of Bitcoin.
67 days and still nothing, not the slightest trace of the bull run, nothing seems in sight even with a powerful telescope. Many investors express their disappointment. However, they are wrong.
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The coming bull run that will span 2024 and 2025 will be triggered by elements of traditional finance that I describe in the second paragraph of this article.
But when it comes to the BTC monetary cycle, particularly its post halving cycle, there is nothing surprising in not having a bull run just 2 months after this quadrennial event.
I resumed price action in the 100 days following the halvings of 2012, 2016 and 2020 and it was a volatile period each time, with market drops. So be patient again, the next bull run will start later in the year.
In my “worst case scenario”, the BTC/USD pair will make a final purge below its 200-day moving average (see the scenario with the halving of 2016) and then the bull run will arrive a few weeks later. BTC/USD is currently testing its 200-day EMA just above $60,000.
Chart of BTCUSD just after the second halving in July 2016 (purge below the 200-day exponential moving average before starting again)
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The 4 conditions necessary to enable BTC price discovery this summer
Here are, in my opinion, the 4 conditions necessary for the Bitcoin price to evolve this summer:
- Condition 1 : FED pivot confirmed for Wednesday, September 18 and bearish technical breaks on US bond rates on the market, notably 2-year and 10-year rates;
- Condition 2 : bearish reversal of the US dollar trend (DXY) on the foreign exchange market (rebound of the EUR/USD rate);
- Condition 3 : a favorable post-halving seasonality (around 100 days after the halving);
- Condition 4 : the massive presence of institutions (this condition is now already met).
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It has always taken several weeks to months after the halving to trigger the bull run.
To learn more about my technical analyses, find me on the Cryptoast Research YouTube channel!
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Vincent Ganne is a recognized expert in technical analysis with 18 years of experience. He frequently speaks on BFM Business and produces exclusive analyzes for Cryptoast Research. Drawing on his extensive experience, Vincent offers a holistic approach to financial markets, taking into account macroeconomic events and using many aspects of graphical analysis to forecast trends in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the medium to long term. He also held the position of Senior Market Analyst & Business Development Manager for 3 years at TradingView, strengthening his in-depth knowledge of financial markets.
Vincent Ganne
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