In 2016, following the 2nd Bitcoin (BTC) halving, the price of the latter fell before rising again throughout 2017. Nearly 8 years later, history could well repeat itself. Several similarities suggest that the recent fall of Bitcoin will give way to a real bull run in the coming months.
Could the recent price drop mark the start of the bull run?
On X, analyst Peter Brandta regular in price analyses, particularly on Bitcoin (BTC), highlighted several similarities between the movements of the cryptocurrency market in recent days and the period 2016-2017.
The analyst said that ” BTC's decline since the last halving is now similar to that of the 2015-2017 bull cycle, during which the 2nd halving occurred “.
👉 What is Bitcoin (BTC) halving and what are its effects?
On April 20, 2024, the 4th BTC halving took place, and since then, the bitcoin price struggles to take off. While it seemed to gradually regain its color in July, The fall in the price of cryptocurrencies that took place during the night of August 4-5 did not help BTC to recover.
In fact, the cryptocurrency has lost more than 13% of its price in 24 hours, dropping below $50,000 at times. So far, Brandt says, the similarities with the scenario that took place in 2016 are striking.
When the 2nd halving took place on July 9, 2016, the price of BTC was $650. After that, the price of BTC suddenly started to drop by 27% in one month, reaching around $475 at its lowest. This did not prevent the appearance of a crypto bull run emblematic, marked by a spectacular rise in the price of BTCcrossing the $20,000 threshold in December 2017.
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Compared to the 2015-2017 period and the recent drop of BTC below $50,000, the asset's price has dropped by 26% from its pre-halving price of around $65,000. A fall which, according to the analyst, suggests a future rise.
Please note that $BTC decline since halving is now similar to that of the 2015-2017 Halving Bull market cycle pic.twitter.com/cIm3WKzBog
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 5, 2024
Moreover, during the price euphoria in the first quarter of 2024, Peter Brandt had claimed that the price of BTC could reach the $200,000 threshold by the summer of 2025.
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Similarities with 2016-2017, but not only?
For other analysts, including ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen, the current trend looks more like that of 2019. At that time, Bitcoin's value then jumped in the first half of the year before suffering a massive correction the following half..
He thus draws a parallel between this period and the rise in the price of BTC that occurred at the beginning of the year, preceding the 4th halving. Following the fall in cryptocurrency prices in 2019, it took the last quarter of 2020 for the price of BTC to jump by almost 600%..
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According to Tim Kravchunovsky, founder and CEO of the decentralized network Chirp, the cryptocurrency market is expected to recover in the same way by 2025. He even added that the liquidation phenomenon that has appeared in parallel with the recent price drop will not slow down the arrival of a bull run.
Cryptoast Research: Don't Spoil This Bull Run, Surround Yourself With Experts
Source : Peter Brandt And Benjamin Cowen via X
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Surprised by the rise of crypto-assets in the late 2010s, I started to closely follow this sector that fascinates me to the highest degree. When I am not in football stadiums, rugby or handball halls, I work on writing relevant articles about cryptocurrencies and more broadly, Web3.
Zacharie Tazrout
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