Ein blackout in the middle of winter – that would be one of the most potentially dangerous consequences that could indirectly result from the Russian attack on Ukraine for Germany. So far, the power supply in this country has been considered relatively secure. But will this hold up over the next winter? Here are answers to the most important questions:
After gas, could electricity soon become scarce?
Nobody can say for sure. An analysis of the electricity supply published just a few days ago by the Ministry of Economic Affairs comes to the conclusion that “safe operation of the electricity supply network is guaranteed in the winter of 2022/23”. But you don’t really trust it that much. Because the house of Robert Habeck (Greens) has already commissioned a second stress test, in which experts examine and model how resilient the German power supply is under “further tightened conditions”, i.e. if even fewer gas deliveries and even less nuclear power from France.
However, energy experts are mostly quite confident that the grid will be able to withstand the stress test. Tobias Federico, Managing Director of the consulting firm Energy Brainpool, says: “Personally, I am not preparing for a blackout.” Despite the shutdown of the last German nuclear power plants at the end of the year in winter, he does not expect any major electricity bottlenecks, also because hard coal-fired power plants would be taken out of reserve . Christoph Maurer from Consentec, a consultant specializing in energy, considers the situation to be tense, but basically manageable in a normal winter. Thorsten Lenck from Agora Energiewende was more cautious: “According to our previous analyzes it is quite possible that there could be a shortage in a few hours in winter.”
What specific risks are there for the German electricity supply?
At least four, experts say: France’s problems with its nuclear power plants, possible extreme weather, the supply situation for gas-fired power plants and consumer behavior. One of the biggest risk factors is, of all things, neighboring France. A large proportion of the nuclear power plants there are shut down after the discovery of small cracks in the emergency cooling system or due to maintenance work. Lenck and Maurer warned that if enough of these nuclear power plants were not connected to the grid again in time, this could pose a challenge for German suppliers due to the European network. It can be particularly critical in a cold winter because a lot of electricity is used for heating in France.
Second risk: freak weather. A “dark calm” can be particularly critical – several days with little wind and at the same time hardly any solar power. If this happens in Germany and France at the same time and then there is a cold spell, that is worrying, says Federico.
Third risk: the supply of gas-fired power plants with sufficient fuel. It is true that they only make up a very small part of the capacities in Germany. But at peak loads, they can be crucial to ensure grid stability, emphasized Lenck. In 2021, a good 15 percent of the total electricity generated came from gas combustion – but now, due to the uncertain Russian supplies, more gas is to be reserved for heating.
