The Apple share was one of the best investments of the past decade. The end of this amazing stock exchange saga has often been sung. But this time there are several signs that Apple reaches its limits.
As has often been the case, observers have predicted the iPhone group that he approaches the end of growth. The saturation with iPhones has been reached, the devices are too expensive in view of equivalent competition from China, invited all necessary apps and new activities such as Apple TV only an expensive “Me-Too” product.
Apple has repeatedly punished his critics: When the sales curve of the Iphones sold became flatter, Apple increased the price of the new devices to over $ 1,000 – and continued to sell them unmoved.
Apple does not even pay 15 percent taxes
The supposedly over-full app store increased earnings year after year, the participation in new subscription models washed billions into the coffers. And by the way, Tim Cook had the tax rate tuned and the billion dollar revenues unmoved unmoved into tax havens. In the 2024 financial year, the tax rate of the entire Apple group was just 14.69 percent. The net turnover return, i.e. measured on the result after all costs, interest and taxes, was 24.3 percent.
Apple was sure one place on the stock market throne. That the apple disciples from Palo Salto 2024 were briefly caught up by Nvidia … so what? The New Kid on the Block has long since left Apple on the stock exchange.
So what should happen? A lot.
1. Problem: The growth no longer fits the evaluation
As of today (March 20, 2025), after the drop in the price, an Apple share is still worth $ 214. Apple with a market value of 3.23 trillion dollars is by far the most valuable company in the world. The runner -up Nvidia weighs $ 2.9 trillion, Microsoft, now only in third place, is worth $ 2.87 trillion.
At this level, the apple group is assessed with a price-profit ratio of 30.8. So it would need 30 annual profits to generate the current IPO. That is expensive, but ok; Microsoft, for example, is evaluated with 31-fold profit, Nvidia with 40 times. SAP currently even with 42 times.
The problem: An old stock market rule is: profit growth, in percent, should correspond to the KGV. Nvidia has so far not grew faster – Apple.
Sales and profits only grew by four percent in the first quarter of the 2024/25 financial year. However, the – already impressive – gross profit margin also rose slightly to 46.9 percent.
“In 2007, when the new iPhone came, Apple had very good growth prospects. The KGV was around 30 and the price turnover ratio at three,” said fund manager Thierry Borgeeat on the YouTube channel “René Will Rendite”. In the following years, when doubts came up, the stock was only evaluated in phases with ten times the profit. “Looking back, that would have been a no-brainer,” Borgesteat is annoyed. Only one realized that at the time: Warren Buffett got in.
Now you have a “very proud rating” like 2007 again, Borgeat notes. But 50 percent of sales now accounted for an iPhone that is no longer an innovation and is in a saturated market. “For the first time, Apple is losing market shares in China and others,” warns Borgeeat, “and yet you pay 30 times – that's just brutal.”
2. Problem: New products are delayed
The growth prospects are and falling with the question of whether and which products will ask customers in the coming years. Of all things, the highly innovative Apple initially had no AI model at the start as a chatt, Llama or Grok began to roll up the market. The group with the voice assistant “Siri” has been active in an adjacent sector for years. It was not until autumn 2024 that the “Apple Intelligence” Californian announced for Siri. But the product shows surprising weaknesses. It is now clear that the next generation of iPhone, which will be on the market in autumn, will not yet be equipped with the announced new Ki-Siri. Apple wants to have many AI function on the device on the device itself.
However, without a new AI function, the demand for new iPhones should be less than hoped. In an internal meeting, the situation is said to have been described as “ugly”, reports “Mac Life”. It was announced on Thursday evening that Tim Cook exchanges the leadership of the Ki-Unit. Now Mike Rockwell, previously head of product development for the VR glasses Vision Pro, is to “save Siri”, as the magazine put.
Apple robot instead of cars
It is not the only setback: working on an Apple Car, a self -driving car, were discontinued in early 2024 after Apple had put billions in the development and salt of employees. Now Apple-according to unconfirmed reports-wants to rely on smart home robots. However, they will not be ready for series production 2028. As the first gag, Apple raised a lamp in the style of the opening credits of the “Pixar” films.
VR glasses are great-but too expensive
The VR glasses Vision Pro may be the most innovative product that Apple has released in recent years. Competitors also see a technical masterpiece. But as impressive as the world of Vison Pro is: it is far too expensive to generate significant quantities.
3. Problem: The attack on the app store
The app store is considered the Burggraben around the Apple Group: On the one hand, sales of sales to the apps throw up a lot of money. On the other hand, the apps, including the iCloud, in which many users have now saved files and photos from more than a decade that users ever leave the Apple cosmos: because the switch to another operating system and the reinstallation of dozens of apps in the Android world are far too complex.
Spotify wins against Apple Music
But recently the app store has also been under fire. So far, Apple has been able to refuse recording as a gatekeeper, i.e. as a “bouncer” and certain apps for various reasons. The apple group often refers to data security or a threat to the stability of its software. This is understandable, but does not fit that data octopuses such as TikTok or even the China-Ki Deep Seek can be found there without any problems.
In other places, on the other hand, the bouncer Apple made generous use of his power. For example, there are no certain navigation programs for many smartwatches there because they could compete with the Applewatch. The Musikdienst Spotify complained for years the high sales participations that Apple asked for admission to the App Store – and finally prevailed. This victory was decisive for the fact that Spotify was able to climb by far the world's largest music streaming service-and the in-house Apple Music now has a marginal existence.
In January 2024, Apple had to allow alternative app stores for European users for the first time on the EU's pressure as part of the “Digital Market Act”. Thus, third-party providers were opened for the first time a back door in the Apple cosmos. However, only a few users still make use of it. And Apple tries everything to reject the law with all kinds of nicknights for its purposes. For example, users who leave Europe for more than 30 days automatically lose access to their third-party apps. Only when they return to Europe do they work again.
So far, the regulation only applies in Europe. But it shows that even in the digital industry, apparently impregnable castle moat cannot protect a business model forever.
Conclusion: A new product would have to bring 200 billion sales
In order to justify the current stock exchange assessment, Apple must now invent a new product – or a new feature – that again sparkes growth fantasy, Fondsmanager Borgeeat points out. A product “brings $ 200 billion to the till a year – and then also a net 100 billion profit”.
Here he sees a huge problem. Without this perspective, the share is “completely unattractive. The fact that Apple can grow by 10 or 15 percent every year, that the share price can grow by ten percent accordingly.”
Warren Buffett already reduced his Apple involvement in 2024 – by 67 percent.
