The Bitcoin market could see another decline, according to Arthur Hayes. A drop below $50,000 would be part of a context of volatility in financial markets, which see their fluctuations strongly impacted by central bank policies.
Bitcoin Price Drop May Not Be Over
The summer period was marked by a lot of volatility on global markets. The VIX, the volatility index of the S&P500, notably recorded an increase of more than 500% in just 2 weeks, before returning to its initial level a few days later.
An increase in volatility that resulted in a drop of almost 10% in the S&P500 price, mainly triggered by the decisions of the Federal Reserve (FED) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding their interest rates.
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Volatility in traditional markets has also had an impact on the Bitcoin price, which fell by almost 30% over the same period before rebounding by 32%Currently, the market seems to be waiting for a clear decision, with BTC hovering around $56,000.
However, BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes recently expressed bearish sentiment on Bitcoin in a post on the X network.
$BTC is heavy, I'm gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 6, 2024
“BTC is heavy, I’m aiming for under $50k this weekend. I took a bold short. Pray for my soul, because I’m a degen.”
As Hayes says, Predicting that Bitcoin will hit $50,000 in 3 days is bold, as it would imply a decline of more than 10%. This would bring the price back to levels similar to those seen during the rapid crash in early August.
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Indicators Suggest Bitcoin Price Is Nearing a Low Point
Despite Arthur Hayes' prediction, Indicators and price action seem to indicate that BTC is near a low and could soon rebound to new highs.
Indeed, although the price of BTC briefly fell below $56,000 since the start of summer, it has always bounced back, marking a strong and difficult to break support.
Additionally, the BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap on Binance shows that relatively few liquidations are below $56,000, while several tens of billions of dollars are waiting above $70,000.
Heatmap of BTC liquidations against USDT on Binance
Although this is not always accurate, the Liquidations often act as a magnet on the priceconstituting a point of interest for market investors where new decisions are made.
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Finally, The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Indexthe “crypto fear and greed index” in English, indicates 22, signaling “extreme fear” among investorsusually associated with capitulation and the end of a bear market.
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Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index, Coinglass
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First lured by the lure of gain, I am now trapped deep into the rabbit hole. With no way out, I have no choice but to share my knowledge and transmit the passion I have for Bitcoin. I am also the creator of Adopt a Block, an educational site dedicated to Bitcoin.
Marius Farashi Tasooji
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