Friday, December 8, 2023

Avalanche nears key breakdown level that could sink AVAX price by another 65%


Avalanche (AVAX) gained 0.5% to succeed in over $31 on Might 23 however AVAX price stays trapped inside a buying and selling vary that seems like a “bear pennant” construction.

Avalanche could get buried technicals

Bear pennants are bearish continuation patterns, ie, they resolve after the price breaks out of them to the draw back after which—as a rule of technical evaluation—falls by as a lot as the peak of the earlier downtrend, additionally known as “flagpole.”

AVAX is nearing a technical breakdown as its price strikes towards the pennant’s apex, ie, the purpose the place its higher and decrease trendlines converge.

This paints the bearish goal for the AVAX/USD pair at $11.50 by June 2022, down about 65% from at this time’s price, as proven under.

AVAX/USD each day price chart that includes ‘bear pennant’ breakdown setup. Supply: TradingView

AVAX price: key assist ranges

Conversely, AVAX’s breakdown setup towards $11.50 could fall quick because of sure key assist areas.

As an example, the Avalanche token’s quantity profile exhibits it buying and selling close to its level of management (POC)—the level the place the merchants have been most lively since 2021—round $32.

Curiously, the level was instrumental in capping AVAX’s draw back makes an attempt within the August-September 2021 session; it preceded a 390% bull run, which noticed AVAX reaching its file excessive of round $150 in late November 2021.

AVAX/USD each day price chart that includes quantity profile. Supply: TradingView

The POC level additionally served as a median in the course of the consolidation development witnessed between January 2021 and Might 2021. Now, It holds as a price ground whilst AVAX eyes the bear pennant breakdown, as mentioned above.

In the meantime, making a Fibonacci retracement graph from AVAX’s $2.75-swing low to $97.50-swing excessive exhibits AVAX consolidating between its 0.618 Fib line (close to $40) and 0.786 Fib line (round 23), as proven under.

AVAX/USD weekly price chart that includes Fib assist and resistance ranges. Supply: TradingView

That raises Avalanche’s risk of retesting $23 as assist, adopted by a rebound transfer towards $40. Such a transfer would threat invalidating the bear pennant setup.

Basically bearish

Right this moment, Avalanche trades almost 78% under its file excessive of round $150, burdened by a powerful bearish sentiment elsewhere within the crypto market in a better rate of interest surroundings.

As well as, the latest Terra ecosystem meltdown has additionally harassed the costs of AVAX and different cryptos decrease.

However the worst remains to be but to return if AVAX continues trending in sync with the highest crypto Bitcoin (BTC) and, in flip, its world risk-on counterparts, akin to Nasdaq. The correlation coefficient between Avalanche and Nasdaq was 0.91 as of Might 23, exhibiting that they’ve been shifting in near-perfect tandem.

Associated: Bitcoin macro backside ‘not in but’ warns analyst as BTC price holds $30K

On the brighter be aware, AVAX exhibits promise of an interim upside state of affairs with a divergence between its rising relative power index (RSI) and falling costs, in keeping with Scott Melker, an unbiased market analyst.

AVAX/USD each day price chart exhibiting bullish divergence. Supply: Scott Melker/TradingView

“There are potential bullish divergences with oversold RSI on a ton of each day altcoin charts,” mentioned Melker, including:

“Want definitive elbow up on RSI, however I nonetheless assume we’ve been bottoming right here throughout markets…. for now.”

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially replicate the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, you must conduct your individual analysis when making a call.