Dhe summer could have gone worse for Joe Biden. Weeks ago, there was an audible rumble in Washington: In view of the persistently poor poll numbers for the president, three-quarters of the Democratic electorate wanted another candidate for the 2024 presidential election. With Biden, it was feared, the White House would be lost. You need someone who can actually do something, according to the opinion polls one and a half years after he took office.
These days, the President interrupted his vacation to celebrate a win at the White House. He was able to sign a reform package that had since been declared dead: Investments in climate protection and the social sector are among his core agenda. Even if Biden ultimately only pushed through a fraction of his original plan, the fact that he was able to break the resistance in his own ranks is a kind of rehabilitation.
There was more good news: in addition to an anti-inflation law, Congress passed a semiconductor manufacturing promotion law to boost competitiveness with China. The economic data – good labor market figures and at least a slight decline in inflation – made people sit up and take notice. The approval ratings for Biden have recently increased slightly.
A glimmer of hope for Biden
This is not a trend reversal. But the glimmer of hope comes at the right time for the president. The Democrats still don’t expect to be able to win the congressional elections in the fall. But confidence is growing that the worst can still be prevented. In view of the House of Representatives, the Republicans have so far expected a clear victory. Now the Democrats are hoping that their gains will be lower than in 1994 and 2010, after the first two years of Presidents Clinton and Obama.
The fact that Nancy Pelosi still believes she will lose the “speaker” post could be seen from her trip to Taiwan, which made waves, which above all served to manage her own legacy.
The abortion issue hurts Republicans
In the Senate, Republicans now fear that attempts to regain a majority in the second chamber could fail. In several contested states, Trumpists have prevailed in the primaries. In polls, they are currently behind the Democratic candidates. Trump’s discipleship has an easier time in homogeneous constituencies than in states where independent centrists can tip the scales. The fact that the abortion issue has become an issue again after the Supreme Court ruling does further damage to the Republicans.
It would be a relative victory for Biden if he could defend his majority in the Senate. The president would continue to get approval for his nominees for the federal courts and the executive branch. Legislatively, however, it would be blocked by the loss of the first chamber and would have to be governed by decree. Nevertheless, he could counter his internal party critics with the fact that a damper by the electorate at half-time is normal, but that there was no conservative march through.
Then facts could be created: If Biden starts his re-election campaign after the “midterms”, it would be difficult for potential rivals to challenge the incumbent. The party establishment would quickly rally behind him, as would the donors.
Sometimes you can tell his age
Democrats face a dilemma: Biden turns 80 in November. Even if his predecessor’s malicious comments about his alleged senility are nonsense, the president’s age is noticeable. There are occasional moments when he seems momentarily disoriented or strays from the script in speeches, always causing concern among his collaborators.
Under ordinary circumstances, it would be wise for Biden to stick by his word that he is a man of transition. But times are not normal: Trump is threatening to return, and Biden, despite his weaknesses, is the only one who is credited with bringing the anti-Trump voter alliance of 2020 back together to some extent. Vice President Kamala Harris can’t, and neither can Gavin Newsom, the governor of California.
Even if the President has not succeeded in reconciling the nation, there is no reason for defeatism. The fact that the majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the course the country is taking reflects the social division: Even those for whom Biden is not left enough are frustrated. But they don’t vote for Trump or any other Trumpist.
