Before the fourth year of the war: the Ukrainians' confidence is gone

The front runs around 30 kilometers south and a good hundred kilometers east of Zaporizhia. Here, in particular, Russian troops have recently advanced with enormous losses. The Ukrainian defenders, who have significantly fewer soldiers and material at their disposal, had to retreat here. According to military observers, Putin is trying to use enormous resources to advance as far into Ukrainian territory as possible before Donald Trump takes office in Washington on January 20th. The calculation behind this could be that Putin expects to be able to keep the conquered areas after a ceasefire.

One of the hottest sections of the front remains near the small town of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region. According to the General Staff in Kiev, Russian troops attempted a total of 50 attacks on Ukrainian lines here on Sunday. The city is of strategic importance primarily because of its transport infrastructure. However, the Russian army has recently changed its tactics, the Financial Times newspaper reported, citing Ukrainian military intelligence.

In order to avoid the expected loss of house-to-house fighting if the city center were captured directly, Russian troops are now pushing from the south to the west in order to conquer the highway leading to Dnipro and to cut off the Ukrainian defenders in Pokrovsk from supplies. The Institute for the Study of War also reports that Russian forces have recently advanced further toward the cities of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Toretsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk.

Ukraine, in turn, is trying to hold on to the Russian territories near Kursk that it occupied in August in order, according to its own statements, to have a pawn in negotiations. Ukraine launched a new offensive there at the beginning of the year. Over the weekend, Ukrainian troops in the region captured and interrogated two North Korean soldiers, South Korean intelligence confirmed on Monday. One of the soldiers reported that he believed that the North Korean authorities had sent him to a training camp in Russia. Then he suddenly found himself in a combat zone. In addition, the North Korean soldiers are said to have received hardly any food or water and to have suffered significant losses.

Both soldiers are said to have had Russian military papers with them that were issued to the Russian Republic of Tuva, which lies on the border with Mongolia. At the end of last year, Ukraine reported that papers from Tuva had been found on fallen North Koreans – presumably with the aim of concealing the soldiers' origins.

“No one in the world should doubt that the Russian army depends on North Korea’s help,” Zelensky said on Telegram. Putin tried to rewrite history three years ago with an ultimatum to NATO and his subsequent attack on Ukraine. “But now he can no longer do without military support from Pyongyang.” Ukraine is ready to transfer the prisoners to North Korea as long as it can free Ukrainian soldiers from Russian captivity. There are other options for North Korean soldiers who want to report “the truth about this war.”

Ukraine, on the other hand, has long had considerable difficulty recruiting more soldiers. While Zelensky resists calls to lower the draft age from 25 to 18, the number of draft evaders is growing. Last week, the authorities attempted to arrest conscript men in a large-scale operation who wanted to leave the country illegally. According to Ukrainian police, evidence of organized escapes was seized in 600 simultaneous searches across the country.

According to estimates, tens of thousands of Ukrainians have already left the country with fake documents and bribes; Dozens have also died trying to swim across border rivers. The police announced further raids to dismantle escape networks.

In view of the massive burden on society, the state and the military, almost three years after the start of the major Russian attack in Ukraine, the number of those who support a partial cession of territory in return for a quick end to the war is growing. According to a representative survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), 38 percent are now willing to do so. This is the highest value since the surveys began in May 2022.

Only a narrow majority of 51 percent want to make territorial concessions to Russia “under no circumstances,” “even if this would prolong the war and endanger the preservation of independence.” A year ago the value was 74 percent. Further surveys also indicate that a moderate but steadily increasing part of the population is pessimistic about the further course of the war.