The balance sheet work when a stock market year ends is a classic task which has many advantages, in particular being able to rely on a good basis for its prospective anticipation for the following year. Vincent Ganne offers you a 2022 stock market report and his scenario for the next two years for the price of bitcoin.
Stock market assessment in 2022, bitcoin is last in class
Here we are ! The stock market year is definitely over this week, the trading volume is already completely anemic and the price action should not hold any more big surprises before the first trading sessions of the year 2023.
As a rule, this is when serious analysts bend to the classic year-end work, make a fundamental and technical assessment of the major market trends of the past year.
I turned to a selection of assets which makes it possible to represent each of the five main asset classes of the financial markets:
- The stock market;
- The bond market;
- The foreign exchange market (FOREX);
- The commodity market;
- The crypto market.
Note that the status of “asset class” for the crypto market is not yet accepted by all.
The year 2022 is therefore a year of global decline for stock indices, bonds and cryptos. In the end, it’s Gold that comes out the best with a zero performance, thus demonstrating its defensive aspect.
Bitcoin price ends the year down 65%, it’s ugly, very ugly. However, rest assured, the stock most traded by US retail investors is doing less well; in effect, Tesla stock is down more than 71% since the start of the year.
Is a 65% drop in 12 months a sufficient argument to consider a clear upward recovery in 2023? Naturally, the answer is no. On the other hand, I am convinced that next year will be the year of building the first roots of the next bullish cycle. ; to put it bluntly, this new year will see the end of the bear market.
Chart showing the evolution of the relative performance throughout 2022 of a selection of components from all major asset classes
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Bitcoin, Vincent Ganne’s scenario for the next 2 years
The year 2022 is therefore a year to forget for the crypto market, a year of fundamental and technical purge; we can indeed only rejoice at the ousting of a character like Sam Bankman-Fried, ex-CEO of FTX, and the starting point that has been given to the establishment of a process of audit of crypto platforms. The first part of 2023 should remain colorful because make no mistake, the purge is probably not finished yetespecially on the environment of altcoins.
I don’t have a crystal ball at my disposal, but I have my charts, my experience and my convictions. By gathering all these beautiful people in a shaker, it is possible for me to offer you a market scenario for the next two years:
- The first half of 2023 will still be difficult but will see the first roots of the next bull market;
- Significant rebounds will take place between the second half of 2023 and the next bitcoin halving (spring 2024);
- The market will exceed the resistance of $30K and take the direction of its ATH between mid-2024 and the year 2025.
Here is my humble opinion of which you have a graphic representation below. Thank you for reading, I wish you all a happy new year’s eve.
Chart that shows Japanese candles in weekly bitcoin price data with Vincent Ganne’s forward-looking scenario for the next 2 years
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Vincent Ganne is a market strategist, technical analyst, trainer on the stock market and speaker on BFM Business. With a long experience in the field of analysis, he offers a global approach to financial markets. Both from a macroeconomic point of view and from a microeconomic point of view. Vincent Ganne also uses many aspects of chart analysis with the aim of forecasting trends in financial assets over the medium and long term.
Vincent Gane
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