Financial markets are in dire need of catalysts. These energize price action by allowing them to break through supports and resistances, creating inertia that is conducive to the establishment of a trend. The question that many are asking at the beginning of this week is whether a dramatic event such as an attempted assassination of a former president can revive the crypto market in a context of appeasement of selling forces.
It is Monday, July 15, 2024, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $62,500.
The good news from the start of this week lies in German government wallet now devoid of Bitcoin. The end of the selling pressure exerted by the latter.
The second good news is found in the market's ability to absorb this selling pressureparticularly under the impact of US spot ETFs which, since July 1, represent a buying force of around 22,300 BTC. That is around 44% of what was sold by the German government.
Historical net flows on different Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States
The FUD around BTC selloffs is not over, however. While it is likely to calm down in the short term, the sword of Damocles that is the distribution of BTC held by governments, corporations or institutions will resurface sooner or later.
The potential pressure that is most likely to come to the fore in the coming months is that of Mt. Gox. To date, 138,000 BTC are still in the Mt. Gox account, or about $8 billion at current Bitcoin prices.Some experts estimate that 99% of these assets could be sold.
However, to offset this potential selling pressure, the market is expecting an influx of capital from FTX customer refunds. These customers are expected to receive $16 billion in the near future. According to experts, a significant amount could be reinvested in crypto assets.
Would a more favorable context be enough to revive the crypto market? Let's see what the technical situation is.
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Bitcoin at the CME: a GAP to fill?
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin / USDT | +4.20% | +8.40% | -5.30% |
| ETH / Bitcoin | 0.00% | +0.60% | 0.00% |
As the CME opened on the night of Sunday 14th to Monday 15th July, BTC was showing strong signs of recovery, leaving behind a bullish gap that prices may seek to revisit. However, price action shows very strong bullish will from the opening, leaving behind a very slight wick before initiating an increase of around 3%.
This Monday's closing could therefore set the pace for the entire week on Bitcoin, the stakes of which could revolve around whether or not this valuation gap between Friday's closing price and Monday's opening is maintained.
The whole question for the next few days therefore lies in the qualification of this gap. Will it be out of stock or standard? ?
If professionals were to continue to exert buying pressure on the market in a re-entry scenario towards the opposite boundary, then the latter should not be filled before reaching the target. If so, the $58,000 level is a target for Bitcoin to reach before its next move.
BTC1! CME Weekly Price Chart
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BTC, heading for the top of the range?
The scenario we mentioned last week, with a rapid bullish recovery, seems to be developing. Price action is re-entering the range at the weekly close. This week will therefore mark the confirmation of this revival or, on the contrary, its failure.
The challenge this week for the bulls is to re-establish themselves within the range with a new close above $60,000. This re-entry projects the assumptions of price action towards the top of the range at $72,000.
Before reaching this goal, prices would have to face:
- the 7-week moving average around $63,000;
- the confluence of the equilibrium zone drawn in yellow and the 20-week moving average. Bitcoin will also have to cross this zone around $65,500 to find a positive polarity within its range.
However, it is appropriate to keep in perspective the medium-term trend which has remained bearish since the downward crossing of $56,000 at the beginning of July. If the current rebound were to fail in the reintegration of $60,000, then sellers would take over to target the liquidity zones below $50,000.
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Bitcoin Price Chart Weekly
In shorter time units (4 hours), Bitcoin is entering a bullish impulse phase. The 7, 20 and 50 moving averages are aligned to the upside. The ping-pong between the upper Bollinger Band and the 7 moving average is engaged in a BB opening configuration. Prices should nevertheless encounter a first resistance with the 50-day moving average at $64,000.
The latter could once again send prices back towards the 7-point moving average at $61,300 or lower to test the strength of the move by testing the confluence between the 20-point moving average, which guarantees the polarity of the move, and the pivot at $59,500 in conjunction with the peaks of July 10 and 11. This last level was also tested in 4 hours during the day on Sunday, confirming that it was now acting as support on this time unit.
Bitcoin Price Chart Weekly
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In summarythe bull camp is looking to regain control of the market. The work will nevertheless be complicated in a medium-term trend that remains bearish. To regain conviction in BTC's ability to continue the underlying bullish trend, price action must reconquer $65,000. It would thus resume a positive polarity in the medium term. That being said, the trend on this time unit will only definitively reverse when the ATH is crossed.
On the contrary, failing to re-establish itself above $60,000 on a weekly basis after making a close above the level could be a sign of major weakness. This is a scenario in which sellers could retain the upper hand to send Bitcoin back below $50,000.
So, do you think BTC can revisit the top of the range? Please feel free to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a great day and we'll see you next week for another Bitcoin analysis.
Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode
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As an analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I conduct in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze upcoming narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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