Ultimate crisis and umpteenth reversal in V Bottom following events in the Middle East, Bitcoin reacts positively in a market which, like the main clues, pushes to the north. The next customs deadlines are close, but the market is focusing on optimism.
Appeasement, relief, but the context remains fragile
Thursday, July 4, 2025, at 9:36 am, when writing these lines, Bitcoin is exchanged around $ 109,000, a level reached thanks to an encouraging rebound observed in recent days.
The markets are closed today in the United States for the annual celebrations of July 4. The highly anticipated report on NFP employment, closely monitored by the Central Bank, was published yesterday.
This results in an unemployment rate lower than expectations, with employment creations always superior to forecasts, a sign that the economy and employment remain very resilient.
Consequently, bond rates bounce back since the idea of a rapid drop in Fed guiding rates to support weakness in the job market is moving away.
Despite this, the general climate remains peaceful: the Nasdaq and S & P500 indices are reaching historical heights, while the VIX returns to a more temperate area. However, although the conflict in the Middle East now seems to be defused, the deadline for American customs duties is fast approaching.
It will therefore be necessary to remain cautious with the approach of July 9, a date which could again arouse volatility and stress in a currently very optimistic market.
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On the derivative market side, buyers have taken over, pushing prices to the north and regularly liquidating the sellers who are in the denial of the increase in recent days.
The bias therefore seems to be bullish again, although a pocket of selling resistance manifests itself. If open interests still have a certain margin of progression, it will however be necessary to be wary of a bias which would unilaterally switch to the side of the buyers.
It is a feeling that could occur if Bitcoin were to cross its historic summit with open interests that continue to increase rapidly.
For their part, the on-chain indicators show an offer largely in profit, whether on the side of short-term holders as well as those in the long term. Profit taking over $ 100,000 is frequent, but less important than in the first quarter.
| Sth | Lth | |
| Price made (in dollars) | 99 271 | 35 512 |
| Profit offer | 85.5 % | 99.70 % |
| Sopr | 1.025 | 2.399 |
In terms of capitalization, Bitcoin maintains its leading position, with a valuation of $ 2,164 billion, dominance close to 65 % and positive growth indicators in the medium term.
In the short term, the relative force of Bitcoin in the face of Ethereum shows signs of contraction, but the trend remains favorable to BTC on a medium term.
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin / USDT | -0.50 % | +1.30 % | +3.20 % |
| Eth / bitcoin | -1.80 % | +2.40 % | -6.40 % |
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Low -down weekly trend?
Since the Israeli-Iranian crisis in mid-June, the bitcoin tendency in weekly has been aligned. Although the closing of the week of June 16 makes it possible to envisage a hunt for liquidity under the previous hollow, this configuration sows doubt as to a continuation of the rebound beyond the historical summits.
To question this trend and get into neutrality, Bitcoin must cross its last weekly summit located at 110,617 dollars, on which he failed yesterday.
This crossing is a prerequisite so that the asset erases this downward trend. It could thus enter the neutrality phase and strengthen the probabilities of a range between $ 112,000 and 100,000 dollars.
If the current increase were to continue beyond the $ 112,000, then the continuation of the events could be played in the capacity of Bitcoin to settle above this level. Indeed, a confirmation of the change of nature of the resistance by a conclusive revisit of the area would validate a new upward leg.
On the contrary, a bullish trap, materialized by a crossing and then reintegration, could trigger a revisit of the opposite terminal near 100,000 dollars.
Bitcoin course graph on a weekly scale
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The daily graphic shows the way?
On the daily side, the trend is upward. The crossing of 106,500 dollars on June 25 marked a BOTTOM recovery, including the throwback at 105 159 of July 2 marks the reference hollow to date.
Haussier development continues, seeking to contest the orientation of the weekly time unit, which the graph will be able to make in case of success in the crossing of the next resistance made at 110,617 dollars on June 9.
If the current upward leg is not over, we can fix a polarity around $ 108,000 in order to assess the strength of the movement. Maintaining the assets above this level in the coming hours/days is favorable for continuation beyond the last summits.
The candle of the day could also have a significant impact on price action.
Indeed, if the weekly summit at 110,617 dollars managed to resist the fence, then a new daily summit could be validated. This hypothesis opens the way to the search for a new hollow in a work area bounded by the hollow at 105,159 dollars.
Bitcoin course graph on a daily scale
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The short term is bullish but the resistance is close
After a congestion phase between 106,500 and $ 108,000, the short -term graph fails on the last weekly summit. The short -term trend is not, however, questioned at the stage where we write these lines, since the last h4 hollow at 108,617 dollars seems to make the price react.
The mobile averages are aligned, and the non-crostement of the Mobile average 20 and 50 in 4 hours lets envisage an upward continuation opportunity, while constituting a reliable short-term support around 108,000 dollars.
The price reaction in the coming hours is therefore essential. In addition, it seems surprising that a significant decline undertakes without having driven liquidity above the weekly summit. This breach in prices' action suggests that, if a decline should be committed, it would only be temporary, leaving the opportunity at the cost of revisiting above.
Bitcoin course graph on a 4 hour scale
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In summary, Bitcoin gradually redirects its dynamics towards neutral phases to boring, and could soon question the weekly trend, which has become a downward crisis in the Middle East. In the shorter term, the assets seem in a position to revisit its historical heights.
So, do you think the BTC can cross its historic summit? Do not hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we meet next week for a new Bitcoin analysis.
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Sources: tradingview, quince, glassnod
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Analyst at Cryptoast Academy for several years, I have been carrying out an in -depth watch in the Crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping the financial markets to the eye.
Emmanuel Lazaro
176 articles
