Friday, July 19, 2024

Bitcoin price may bottom at $15.5K if it retests this lifetime historical support level


Bitcoin (BTC) might be in for a return to ranges not seen since earlier than its 2020 bull market if historical past repeats itself.

That was in keeping with new evaluation launched on May 24, which studied Bitcoin’s interplay with its 200-week transferring common (WMA).

Bitcoin ground goal might be between $15,500 and $19,000

In a Twitter threadcommon dealer and analyst Rekt Capital defined how BTC/USD might behave ought to it fall to retest the 200WMA.

A lifeline all through Bitcoin’s historical past, the 200WMA is a consistently rising line of final support which has by no means been definitively damaged.

At present sitting at round $22,000, knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView exhibits, the level continues to behave as a line within the sand when it involves bear markets.

In occasions previous, Rekt Capital notes, Bitcoin has “depraved” under the 200WMA — briefly capitulating earlier than rising again above, permitting it to stay as support and never as a substitute flip to resistance.

These wicks, nonetheless, have concerned as much as 28% of spot price, that means that ought to an identical wick happen now, Bitcoin would find yourself at $15,500.

“BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% under the 200-MA. And because the $BTC 200-MA now represents the price level of ~$22000… A -14% draw back wick under the 200-MA would lead to a ~$19000 Bitcoin,” Rekt Capital wrote.

“And if BTC had been to repeat the March 2020 draw back wicking depth under the 200-MA $BTC would revisit the ~$15500 price level.”

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200WMA. Supply: TradingView

“Concentrate” under $23,000

As Cointelegraph reported, a lot has been manufactured from Bitcoin price motion at present in comparison with March 2020 at the peak of the COVID-19 cross-market crash.

Associated: Bitcoin dives to fill CME hole amid declare new all-time highs will take 2 years

Rekt Capital moreover examined historical drawdowns from all-time highs and Bitcoin’s “dying crosses” this month, producing a BTC price goal of $22,700 — virtually precisely at the present 200WM.

“BTC is slowly approaching the 200-MA Traditionally, the 200-MA tends to supply improbable alternatives with outsized ROI for long-term $BTC traders (inexperienced circles),” he added alongside a chart exhibiting interactions.

“Ought to BTC certainly attain the 200-MA support… It could be sensible to concentrate.”

BTC/USD annotated chart with 200-week MA. Supply: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Fellow analyst PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow BTC price fashions, has additionally lengthy championed the function of the 200WMA as support.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, you must conduct your personal analysis when making a call.