Wir haben schon letztes Jahr festgestellt, dass sich die Märkte anders entwickeln als erwartet, gerade auch, was die Transformationsthemen angeht. Wir sehen hier zwei Effekte: In unserem Heizungsgeschäft gab es 2023 eine Übernachfrage nach Wärmepumpen. Es war absehbar, dass das Geschäft dieses Jahr unter Druck kommen würde, hoffentlich wird sich die Nachfrage zum Jahresende hin erholen. Wir sehen eine gewisse Stabilisierung, das ist schon mal sehr erfreulich.
Eine Transformation findet auch im Autogeschäft statt, das zwei Drittel des Bosch-Umsatzes ausmacht.
Im Automarkt verschiebt sich die Nachfrage zuletzt vom rein elektrischen Fahrzeug hin zu Hybridmodellen. Und die weltweite Nachfrage nach Autos schwächte sich im bisherigen Jahresverlauf weiter ab. In Deutschland bleibt der Abstand zum Vorkrisenniveau weiterhin hoch, trotz des jüngsten Anstiegs der Pkw-Registrierungen im Juni. Bei den schweren Nutzfahrzeugen sehen wir aktuell sogar einen Rückgang.
Ihre Geschäfte mit Hausgeräten und Elektrowerkzeugen stocken ebenfalls.
Wir sehen leider allgemein eine starke Eintrübung des bauabhängigen Konsums, der auch uns trifft. Insgesamt gesehen sind wir bei Bosch in einer Situation, die wir in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten selten hatten: Unser Unternehmen ist ganz bewusst sehr breit aufgestellt über viele Produkte und Märkte – aber aktuell gibt es fast überall Probleme bei der Nachfrage.
Dabei ist Bosch darauf programmiert, Flauten in einem Bereich durch gute Geschäfte in anderen auszugleichen.
Ja, normalerweise sind die Geschäftszyklen nicht so gleichläufig wie jetzt. Wir sind in einer außergewöhnlichen Situation und das bedeutet: Wir müssen kämpfen und uns jeden Zentimeter Raum erarbeiten, um trotzdem zu wachsen. So kommunizieren wir das auch unseren Mitarbeitern gegenüber.
Sie streichen 7000 Arbeitsplätze, davon 3200 in der Autosparte. Kommt da noch mehr?
Niemand baut gerne Stellen ab, denn das tut weh und damit verliert man auch Potential. Es geht dann immer um Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter, die im Unternehmen etwas leisten. Aber wenn kein Wachstum da ist in den Märkten, muss man seine Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auch durch Kostensenkungen stärken.
Reicht der beschlossene Stellenabbau?
Dass es keinen weiteren Handlungsbedarf gibt, kann niemand mit Sicherheit sagen.
Selbst auf Sicht von ein bis zwei Jahren kann ich keine festen Zusicherungen machen. Dafür ist die Marktentwicklung zu unsicher. In jedem Falle werden wir dies weiter so sozialverträglich wie möglich gestalten.
Bosch is owned by a foundation, but you compete with listed companies that raise investment funds on the capital market. Can you keep up in the long term?
We have a high equity ratio and are very happy to be a foundation-based company. This means we can keep most of our profits in the company and reinvest them. We want to develop vigorously and we have sufficient capital to do this. At the same time, however, we need to make sufficient profits to do this.
Bosch has not yet achieved the 7 percent return on sales that you consider necessary.
We have increased our research and development spending significantly in recent years. This initially reduces profitability, but these are investments that will ensure we continue to make profits in the future. As a company, we are the German champion in patent applications. We are keeping a close eye on the 7 percent return so that we can afford these expenses and any necessary acquisitions.
Do you see a need and opportunities for larger takeovers?
There are always opportunities for acquisitions in the world. If it's a good fit, we're not averse to it. The future will show what's possible.
Are you interested in a billion-dollar takeover of the US home appliance manufacturer Whirlpool, as recently reported?
As a general rule, we do not comment on speculation.
Bosch has long been the world's largest automotive supplier. But the Chinese battery specialist CATL has almost caught up with you. Will Bosch soon no longer be number one?
If you include battery production, then that can happen. Bosch is not in the battery business and we will not go into it, so we will pursue it calmly. That would be a consequence of our strategic direction.
Europe has become dependent on Chinese suppliers for battery technology for electric cars. Is this also because domestic companies like Bosch have shied away from this new business area?
Every company has to decide for itself which is the right path. The core goal of companies cannot be to solve European dependency problems. Companies have to run their business successfully. Yes, the supply of batteries for electric cars may be a political issue in Europe, but I am convinced that Bosch made the right decision at the time. The financial risk was too high.
Bosch and other companies have invested a lot of money in electric cars, but sales figures are unexpectedly weak. What are the consequences for Bosch?
That you always have to be humble towards the consumer. They make their purchasing decisions completely independently. And at the moment, many consumers are saying: No, I want to buy a different vehicle instead of an electric car. That doesn't mean that this path to electromobility no longer exists. It still exists. In the long term, the electric car will prevail – and in view of the climate goals, that is good and right in my view. But this change is not linear, but comes in waves. And now we are in the trough of the wave.
And how does Bosch react in the trough of the wave?
Combative! With better technologies and better products.
When will you start making money with your electric car?
We have businesses in this field that are already generating profits and are growing dynamically. In other areas, it will take a little longer. But in the next few years, the electric car will generate a decent profit for us.
I cannot and do not want to say exactly. Otherwise I might either scare off one or two competitors or make them overconfident. But yes, the electric car will be good business for Bosch, especially the power electronics, motors and axles. We currently assume that in the EU in 2030 more than two thirds of new cars will be fully electric. Worldwide, around one in three vehicles will be an electric car in 2030, and one in two by 2035.
At first there were too high expectations about how quickly the electric car would become popular. Then the mood changed. Is the electric car now viewed too negatively?
Exaggerations are part of market activity. As I said, developments are not linear. If, for example, I subsidize the purchase of electric cars with a certain amount of money from the state and then abruptly stop, then that will of course have an impact on demand.
Was the government right to stop the purchase subsidy in 2023?
Yes, at some point subsidies have to be stopped. And the funding has not been stopped completely: pure electric cars and plug-in hybrids continue to receive strong tax support as company cars.
The EU wants to ban the sale of new cars with pure combustion engines from 2035. Should this plan be revised?
The timetable will be reviewed in 2026 and I think that is a good thing. The combustion engine ban is not an end in itself. It is not about banning a certain drive technology, but about ensuring that we only use CO2-free drives. But we should be as open to technology as possible in order to benefit from innovations. The current EU plan is not quite what I would have hoped for. That does not mean that the plan has to be reversed now, but it is good that it will be discussed again in 2026.
But in the automotive industry there is also a demand for planning security. According to the motto: We have prepared ourselves for the end of combustion engines in 2035 and have invested a lot. We cannot change all of that now.
I don't really like the term “planning security”; to me it sounds a bit like a planned economy. A market economy is characterized by the fact that I don't plan exactly what will happen and how.
Don’t the tariffs now imposed by the EU on the import of Chinese electric cars slow down the switch because they make electromobility more expensive?
On the one hand, as a market economist, you cannot be in favor of high tariffs. On the other hand, the logic behind them is understandable: unfair competitive advantages that China is said to have granted its national manufacturers are to be compensated for by countervailing tariffs. But I hope that we do not end up in a system in which we all suffer from high tariffs. It would be good if the EU could agree with China on a fair competitive environment. Of course, that is not easy, but we have to find a way. Tariffs alone are not a solution.
