Rumors of a strategic Bitcoin reserve pushed by Donald Trump are growing more and more within the crypto ecosystem. If the ground for a possible “sell the news” seems to be gradually being established, the time has come to observe prices. Can we validate the crossing of 100,000 dollars on BTC?
Will this crossing above $100,000 be the right one?
It is Monday, December 16, 2024 and the price of Bitcoin is moving around $103,600.
Last night, the opening of the crypto markets to professionals was marked by the appearance of a gap, followed by the start of the day characterized by an extreme candle which did not give ground to the sellers' camp.
This type of opening is often a signal of enthusiasm for the asset concerned, which can continue over the unit of time in which it was observed. This is the whole point of this trading day for Bitcoin: will the CME GAP be filled or, on the contrary, will the candle of the day take a particularly bullish form without leaving a wick penetrating the GAP?
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The study of derivatives markets shows no sign of overheating. Open interests like funding did not overreact following the historic peak. It is also rather likely that the increase in open interest comes from short positions which triggered a first squeeze to send prices to $106,500.
Among the macroeconomic events of this week, the next monetary policy decision of the American central bank, which will be made public this Wednesday, December 18 at 8:00 p.m., could act as a catalyst, creating volatility both upstream and downstream of this decision.
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin/USDT | +1.00% | +5.00% | +13.50% |
| ETH/Bitcoin | -0.20% | -4.00% | +10.10% |
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What are the long-term objectives if the price action validates the conquest of 100,000 dollars?
The price of BTC is still working the $100,000 zone. Tonight's crossing suggests that we could now create a new gap to climb a new step by settling above $103,000 and consider a bullish continuation freed from the psychological level of $100,000.
This is indeed the issue of this week: confirm the weekly close and keep the Bitcoin price closing above the high wick of December 5, 2024. If BTC manages to validate this support zone, then the next objectives should be sought above current prices.
On the contrary, if it failed to maintain these levels, we could consider reinstatement below $100,000 with a high probability of revisiting the lower areas of the previous range.
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However, there is currently no indication that this scenario could develop. The closes are bullish, just like the trend which aligns upward over several time units. Price action could continue to build Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. This is the most likely stage, however today's close, which should be impacted by the American session, could confirm or invalidate this scenario.
This session will therefore be particularly important!
The probabilities being more favorable for a bullish continuation than the opposite, this week I would like to offer you price projections through the prism of the Fibonacci tool. If we use the standard tool for mapping bear market levels, we can see several things.
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The 50% retracement corresponds perfectly to the 2024 annual opening level. This highlights the relevance of this plot which offered us a first target at $102,000 on which we recently struggled for a few days.
If we rely on this tool, the next target could be at $122,000, before starting a more ambitious target around $155,000 on the 2.618 extension of the bear market. The most optimistic could consider the 210,000 dollars with the 3,618 extension or the 242,000 dollars for the 4,236 extension, but I nevertheless want to invite you to be cautious and to calculate the capitalization of Bitcoin if it manages to achieve these objectives .
Indeed, if we consider a basic calculation of the supply in circulation with the targeted prices:
| Bitcoin price in dollars | Market Cap in dollars |
| 122,000 | 2,415 billion |
| 155,000 | 3 trillion |
| 210,000 | 4,157 billion |
| 242,000 | 4,790 billion |
As an indication, the most capitalized American company is currently Apple, with 3.75 trillion dollars. The cumulative capitalization of the “magnificent 7” represents 18,000 billion dollars, which is equivalent to the 17,800 billion dollars of the capitalization of physical gold.
Daily Bitcoin price graph
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In summaryBitcoin achieves a weekly close above the highs of December 5, marking its desire to go higher. Be careful, however, not to re-enter the close below $102,000 so as not to open up the likelihood of re-entry into the previous range.
So, do you think BTC can cross $110,000? Don't hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we’ll see you next week for a new analysis of Bitcoin.
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Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode
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Investments in cryptocurrencies are risky. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with high return potential involves high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your capacity to lose part of this savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital
Analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I carry out in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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