SHardly any foreign political adviser has visited China for more than two and a half years. Some even say that Scott Kennedy is now the first. The senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington says the lack of face-to-face discussions is devastating. The governments in Washington and Beijing are both trapped in their respective echo chambers.
“US-China relations are in a terrible state. We are on a trajectory that will eventually lead to kinetic conflict,” Kennedy said during a European Chamber of Commerce event in Beijing. His job is to “open the door to the echo chamber here in Beijing a little bit so that air can come in and hear what people are thinking, and then go home to Washington, open the door to the echo chamber there and to share some thoughts”.
His journey alone shows how difficult exchanges with China have become. His first attempt at entry failed in April due to the lockdown in Shanghai, the second because the Chinese aviation authority had canceled his flight because too many passengers had tested positive for Corona during the previous American Airlines flight.
Detouring via Taiwan and South Korea, Kennedy spent 26 days in quarantine before he could hold his first call in Beijing. China, he says, is almost as hermetically sealed off as North Korea.
View of China ‘hardened like cement’
In the Chinese echo chamber, the conviction has solidified that America is out to overthrow the Communist Party. In Washington, the view of China has “hardened like cement”. There are false assumptions and hardliners on both sides that could set in motion a dynamic that could lead to a military conflict. The danger of miscalculations increases with every closed conversation channel.
Kennedy has now cleared the entry barriers. In China, however, he encounters new obstacles. The ubiquitous surveillance leads to the self-censorship of his interlocutors. They are under pressure to submit to the official narrative. In addition, the Chinese leadership is so isolated that formerly informed circles can only speculate about the country’s course.
A man with a mouth and nose cover in front of a poster in Beijing at the end of September announcing the 20th party congress
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Image: dpa
Two weeks before the big party congress, for example, it is impossible to find out who will be promoted to the Politburo and its standing committee. It is also unclear, says Kennedy, which strategic considerations prompted head of state and party leader Xi Jinping to sign a joint declaration on February 4 with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a “partnership without borders”. This is particularly problematic because this step in Washington has led to a massive hardening towards China.
