IWas the missile that fell in a Polish village on the border with Ukraine on Tuesday afternoon, killing two people, shot down by Russian troops? Or is the missile a deviating missile, with which the Ukrainians tried to defend themselves against the clearly Russian shellfire with which Moscow also covered the west of the country it had invaded?
On Wednesday there were increasing indications that the projectile was an anti-aircraft missile used by both the Ukrainian and Russian armies. Even if it turned out that a Russian offensive weapon struck Poland, Poland and NATO as a whole should not have acted any differently than they have acted up to now: prudently.
The fact that Warsaw has put parts of its army on a higher readiness level is a moderate and understandable reaction. However, further action must now be discussed coolly in the Alliance’s bodies. An emergency meeting has already been convened in Brussels for this purpose.
Intention or “accident”? This is important now
What the shelling was about plays a significant role in the further consequences: intentional or an “accident”. Of course, it would also be worrying to realize that the Kremlin, which is beating wildly with rockets, is now accepting “collateral damage” on Polish territory. Because then a border conflict would arise between NATO and Russia in both senses of the word, which could lead to the proclamation of the alliance case according to Article 5.
NATO did not and does not want to become a party to the war. If Putin is still halfway sane, then he too can have no interest in a military conflict with the Atlantic alliance; he doesn’t even win the war against Ukraine, in which he sacrifices another part of his armed forces every day.
However, experience shows that in his case one has to reckon with what appears insane from a Western point of view. The most recent example: while Lavrov was still resisting the unanimous condemnation of the Russian war of aggression in Bali, Moscow bombarded the Ukraine with a swarm of missiles that now also hit Poland. With this, the Kremlin has not only once again exposed itself as a terrorist power. He also makes his remaining supporters in the world of states look like willing idiots.
