Ahen the news spread like wildfire that a rocket had hit a Polish village on the border with Ukraine for the first time, the worst fears arose: Does Moscow no longer shy away from attacks on a NATO country? Is this how the Third World War started, intentionally or unintentionally?
In fact, it could start like this when nervous or even trigger-happy actors were sitting at the launch buttons in the infamous fog of war. But Poland and NATO as a whole reacted calmly and first clarified the facts. So far, they have said that it was not a Russian missile, but an unsuccessful attempt by the Ukrainian armed forces to defend itself. The world can breathe a sigh of relief – at least for the moment.
What Russia needs least: a war against NATO
In the long term, she would not have to fear a rational decision-making and acting actor in the Kremlin. He would recognize what Russia needs most right now: a military confrontation with NATO. Despite its numerical superiority, Moscow cannot even win the war against Ukraine.
With his campaign, Putin has so weakened and demoralized his armed forces that they will not be able to launch promising attacks against the Western alliance for years to come. The Russian army will take a long time to recover from the disaster in Ukraine. The sanctions are likely to make rearmament significantly more difficult.
Is Putin a victim of his own propaganda?
But Putin has also repeatedly shown that he follows a different cost-benefit calculation than Western strategists. And that he is willing to take risks that Westerners shy away from with good reason. The big question is to what extent the Russian autocrat has meanwhile become a victim of his own propaganda, according to which a war of aggression is indeed raging in Ukraine, but not by Russia, but by the USA and NATO against holy Russia. The increasingly fanatical way in which Putin is making his grotesque claims about this supposedly never-ending battle no longer speaks for a sober view of realities.
NATO must therefore be particularly careful that the Kremlin does not mistake its prudence for lack of determination. She has to make it clear to Moscow on all channels how serious she is about her double decision: that she doesn’t want to become a war party in Ukraine, but would defend every square centimeter of alliance territory if Russia took the war there too. This is the red line, and there should be no hesitation or procrastination when breaching it.
Thank goodness NATO has now been spared this test. In the relief that that one missile didn’t come from Russia, one shouldn’t forget why it was launched: because Putin once again launched countless missiles at Ukraine in an attempt to convert the nation resisting submission into the to bomb back stone age. He once again exposed himself as a ruthless aggressor. With his rocket fire on the Ukrainian cities, however, he also exposed those states as useful idiots and willing accomplices who at the same time were putting on record those “other views” in Bali that were intended to exonerate Moscow.
