Et is hot and it doesn’t rain, so levels in important transport rivers like the Rhine are falling. This is extremely inconvenient for the bargemen. “Everything that can swim is on the move,” says Jens Schwanen, Managing Director of the Federal Association of German Inland Shipping (BDB). But when water levels drop, ships can take less cargo, further reducing capacity. The employment situation is so good for two main reasons: On the one hand, the coal importers are asking for enormous amounts of cargo because the coal-fired power plants are supposed to run longer as a result of the gas crisis. At the same time, and this is also a consequence of the Ukraine war, the grain from the Ukraine is not only to be distributed by rail and truck, but also by ship, which in turn ties up a lot of shipping capacity.
A critical bottleneck is Kaub near Koblenz. The level has dropped to 0.70 meters within two weeks. “But we need more than 1.20 meters,” says Jürgen Osterhage from the Association of Coal Importers. The coal ships that supply the power plants up the Rhine could only take 30 to 40 percent of the normal load. It looks better between the Netherlands and Duisburg. According to Steag, which operates several coal-fired power plants in the Ruhr area, there have been no supply bottlenecks so far.
“No emergency fleet at hand”
“Now, low water is natural and whining about it is not helpful,” says Schwanen, but the barge criticizes that lessons could have been learned more quickly from earlier low water situations, which threaten to repeat themselves this summer. The last dramatic situation was not that long ago: In 2018, the Rhine had little water for so long that even the supply of fuel to petrol stations was endangered at times. The chemical industry in particular was badly affected, with many important plants along the Rhine. Steel companies also had to shut down their production, the economic damage was in the billions at the time.
One thing in particular has changed since then: water levels are now predicted more reliably and over a longer period of time. This makes it easier for shipowners to adapt to the situation. “But that only helps to a limited extent, because we don’t have an emergency fleet at hand,” says Schwanen. There are more than 2000 ships in the German shipping register alone, but boats with the Dutch flag are often in the majority, especially on the Lower Rhine. It’s already full on the Rhine and more capacity is hard to find. Nevertheless, the steel industry with its blast furnaces and the chemical industry with its closely timed production processes are particularly dependent on regular deliveries. “But in such situations, customers from the chemical, mineral oil or steel sectors are also challenged to drill down on the spot delivery in the direction of somewhat larger warehousing,” says Schwanen.
At the Association of the Chemical Industry (VCI), the falling levels have not yet had any effects on the member companies, it is said on request. Basically, the situation in logistics is of course tense, the railways are overwhelmed and there is a lack of truck drivers. This means that the alternatives are very manageable. Barges are an important means of transport for the chemical industry. Of the almost 70 million tons of chemicals that the industry transports every year, 11 percent come by barge.
Barrages would be even more expensive
Some chemical companies, such as the BASF group, are experimenting with low-water vessels. Last year, the Association for European Inland Navigation and Waterways presented a report on “Strengthening the resilience of waterways in exceptional low water situations”, which also analyzed the proposals made to improve the situation, especially after the long low water in 2018 . According to this, at least 300 low-water ships are needed to supply the industry, but so far there are only a few of them – and building them is expensive, an investment of more than 1 billion euros, the association calculates.
Even more expensive and probably more controversial would be barrages on the Rhine, which the inland shipping lobby itself only describes as the “ultima ratio”. In addition to generally deepened fairways, the report also proposes defining special low-water fairways, especially when water levels are falling, which could then be used primarily for ships sailing against the direction of flow. Because they have a stronger draft than the ships that go with the current.
As everywhere where traffic is involved, the major infrastructure projects in shipping are often a major nuisance for the industry. In Sankt Goar, for example, the fairways are to be deepened. The project was originally supposed to be completed in 2030, but is now taking at least three years longer. “One is in the process of implementation, but it just takes an incredibly long time,” complains Schwanen. These projects are initially of no help, especially for regularly occurring events such as low water in summer.
The concern is anything but new: In the final report by the Federal Ministry of Transport on the “Impact of climate change on waterways and shipping in Germany” (Kliwas), which was presented in 2015, it was determined that the low water for inland shipping will continue well beyond 2050 due to the “of relatively long duration” will be more relevant than floods.
“We have to be prepared for water levels changing more extreme overall, i.e. there are more intense periods of low water and more severe flood events,” says Schwanen, Managing Director of Inland Shipping. This is also indicated by other scientific studies.
