As the second debate of the US presidential election takes place today, markets are in a state of anticipation. Both stocks and cryptocurrencies could be influenced, with candidates having distinct positions. What can we then anticipate regarding the outcome of this debate?
US elections could set the tone for markets
This is the first time that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump will meet in a debate. As tensions have crystallized between the two parties, Markets may react to what happens on American televisions.
US stocks have already been getting on investors' nerves in recent weeks, with geopolitical tensions and unemployment figures causing concern across the Atlantic. As a direct consequence of these hesitations, the S&P 500 recorded its worst week since March 2023.The debate is therefore expected to be particularly closely watched, with promises from candidates that will have a direct effect on the perception of various industries.
Buy crypto on eToro
What are the historical positions of the candidates?
Candidates will be assessed in part on business taxes. Donald Trump is in fact in favor of reducing taxes to 15%, while his rival Kamala Harris wants to increase them to 28% for the largest companies. The Democratic project, however, intends to maintain them for those who earn less than 400,000 euros per year.
The other lever of magnitude is customs duties, particularly those targeting China. Donald Trump has been very much in favor of a sharp increase in these levies, which would be set at 10% for all goods coming from China.
For Kamala Harris, however, the trend seems to be towards a de-escalation of tensions with China. : she does not want to further anger the Chinese giant, while the president she supports, Joe Biden, had already significantly increased customs duties for certain products.
Immigration and cryptocurrencies
The issue of immigration also crystallizes tensionsWhile Donald Trump has made it a major campaign issue, wanting to stop all immigration, Kamala Harris has historically adopted a less severe approach, even if the Democrats have supported a project for a new wall on the border with Mexico.
According to JPMorgan analysts, Too much of a reduction in immigration could, however, lead to a decline in the labour force, and thus promote higher inflation..
On the cryptocurrency side, the pro-crypto candidate in the election is Donald Trump. The former president has shown himself in favor of establishing a strategic reserve in Bitcoin and has multiplied the signs of support for the ecosystem.. After several collections of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), the former president thus supported a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform. He also stated that he wanted all Bitcoins (BTC) to be produced in the United States.
For his part, Kamala Harris seems to want to adopt a less hostile position towards the ecosystem than her predecessor… Up to a certain pointThe Democratic program does not include any mention of cryptocurrencies.
💡 How to buy Bitcoin (BTC) easily? Follow our complete guide 2024
Industries and companies that could be influenced by a Donald Trump victory
If Donald Trump wins next November, companies linked to China could suffer from an escalation of tensions. Among the “big players”, we can cite the world's most capitalized company, Nvidia, or the electric car company Tesla.
Conversely, the oil industry and the industrial sector in general could benefit from a victory for Donald Trump, who has historically been hostile to ecological positions. Shares of giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Occidental Petroleum and Bajer Hughes could therefore benefit from this..
A Republican victory could also benefit defense and armament-related stocks. If Donald Trump wins, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Grumman could benefitThis is also the case for actions by prison groups or firearms manufacturers.
Cryptoast Research: Don't Spoil This Bull Run, Surround Yourself With Experts
Industries and companies that could be influenced by a Kamala Harris victory
Unlike Donald Trump, a victory by Kamala Harris could benefit “green” companies, like electric vehicle companies like Tesla or charging networks like ChargePoint.
👉 Not to be missed – How to buy Tesla (TSLA) shares? Practical guide 2024
We could also see a marked favor for companies linked to solar energy, like First Solar or SunrunThe Democrats' softer stance on cannabis could also benefit big industry names like Canopy Growth and Curaleaf.
The banking sector could, however, face wider concerns under a Harris government.which could be reflected in the shares of major American banks. The shares of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and others will therefore be ones to watch, with a possible tightening of the rules concerning them.
Historically, election years are good for the U.S. stock market, but this election is unique and has already seen some big swings. Today's debate should therefore provide another indicator of the trends to follow through November.
The #1 Crypto Newsletter 🍞
Receive a daily crypto news recap by email 👌
What you need to know about affiliate links. This page may feature investment-related assets, products, or services. Some links in this article may be affiliate links. This means that if you purchase a product or sign up for a site from this article, our partner pays us a commission. This allows us to continue to provide you with original and useful content. There is no impact on you and you can even get a bonus for using our links.
Investing in cryptocurrencies is risky. Cryptoast is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and could not be held responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused following the use of a good or service highlighted in this article. Investments related to crypto-assets are risky by nature, readers must do their own research before taking any action and only invest within the limits of their financial capacities. This article does not constitute investment advice.
AMF recommendations. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with a high return potential implies a high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your ability to lose part of these savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital.
To go further, read our Financial Situation, Media Transparency and Legal Notices pages.
A journalist at Cryptoast since 2017, I am passionate about the issues of decentralization, privacy and regulation. I specialize in traditional economics and finance, analyzing how news from this sector influences the cryptocurrency sector, offering a unique and informed perspective to Cryptoast readers.
Marine Debelloir
3132 articles
