Monday January 20 could well be a historic turning point for the crypto ecosystem. Whether positive, negative or a non-event, this date will likely mark the year 2025 as a major pivot. Will there really be a “before” and “after” inauguration for DOGE? The wait is coming to an end…
Will DOGE be boosted by the Trump administration?
It is Friday January 17, 2025 and the price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is moving around $0.415.
The last analysis we carried out on DOGE was on December 11, 2024, when its price was hovering around $0.40. Since then, price action has remained locked in a range, sideways throughout December and at times putting pressure on its supports.
Next Monday, with the inauguration of Donald Trump, we will see if campaign promises will translate into concrete actions. Among these promises, the creation of the DOGE department within the US government could become a reality, opening the way to initiatives likely to profoundly transform the functioning of the country's institutions.
It remains difficult, for the moment, to determine whether Elon Musk, who should play a key role within this entity, will really have the power to change practices and operating methods often perceived as obsolete. Nevertheless, all this represents an excellent marketing coup for Dogecoin, the eponymous memecoin, which could benefit significantly in terms of visibility and credibility..
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On the derivatives markets side, Dogecoin continues to attract the attention of speculators, ranking respectively in 4th and 5th position in terms of volumes over the last 24 hours and amount of open interest. However, the latter have remained relatively stable since the low point of December 20, which marked the end of a purge phase having reduced the capital committed on the derivative markets for this asset by 38%.
A slight rebound in Open Interest (OI) has been observable in recent hours. This nevertheless remains moderate but it is a factor which calls for caution. Indeed, a more marked increase could occur in the coming hours. It will be necessary to remain vigilant in the face of a possible too rapid return of risky positions, which could lead to erratic movements.
DOGE is still 7th in the ranking by capitalization of the crypto ecosystem, with $60.82 billion to its assets. A position that gives it the title of leader in the memecoin sector.
| Pairs with Dogecoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Doge/USDT | +7.50% | +22.90% | +7.00% |
| Doge/Bitcoin | +4.30% | +13.20% | +8.90% |
👉 How to easily buy Dogecoin (DOGE) in 2024?
Is DOGE ready to break out of its range?
Dogecoin has been moving in a lateralization phase for 65 days, oscillating between a lower limit located at $0.30 and an upper limit close to $0.46, with a polarity fixed around $0.38. Over the past 30 days, DOGE has settled in the lower part of the range, crossing the lower bound during a hunt for liquidity whose bearish excess reached $0.26.
This level now constitutes the critical threshold which would invalidate any upward scenario in the short and medium term. This hypothesis is reinforced by the 20-week moving average whose slope is upward, and which is currently entering into confluence with the low point of December 20 at $0.26.
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During the recent moves, DOGE has shown signs of resilience, managing to keep the December 20 low intact. This shows some strength, especially since even Bitcoin failed to preserve its December lows during the January 13 pullback.
After this final test of support at $0.30, it is likely that DOGE will begin a phase of development towards its upper limit located at $0.46. At the same time, the pivot of the range at $0.38 must confirm its ability to act as support, allowing the asset to revive in the event of a decline.
Price action could be supported in this move higher by the 7, 20 and 50 day moving averages, which currently appear to be rebuilding higher just below the current level. The hypothesis of a range exit for DOGE could become more and more likely if the different SMAs realign upwards in the coming days.
Finally, an opening of the Bollinger bands, already under pressure, would validate this bullish setup, reinforcing the potential for a rebound beyond the 2024 peaks. In this scenario, the asset could target $0.60, then attempt to reach its historic peak at $0.74.
Dogecoin daily price graph
In summary, Dogecoin has been sideways for several weeks, but displays good strength signals with a low formed on January 13, higher than the December low point. Striving today to re-enter the upper part of its range, DOGE could continue its progression towards $0.46 and attempt to cross the 2024 highs.
So, do you think DOGE can already set its sights on a new price record? Don't hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we’ll see you next week for a new analysis.
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Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode
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Investments in cryptocurrencies are risky. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with high return potential involves high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your capacity to lose part of this savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital
Analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I carry out in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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