The latest bearish excesses in the crypto market, combined with FUD and the mass effect, have planted the seeds for a bullish reconstruction. The current rebounds remain mostly technical, but the next few hours could guide us as to whether or not ETH will continue towards a more sustained upward movement.
It is Wednesday, July 17, 2024, and the ETH price is hovering around $3,450.
As new rumors project the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs in the course of next week, the second crypto on the market confirms its rebound from the lows of May 2024 in a very positive start to the week.
In this breathing phase, BTC remains strong, not losing its dominance support at 54%, but Ethereum echoes it by consolidating on the ETH/BTC pair. Pair that remains in a bearish channel, stuck below the 50-week moving average that it has been working since the beginning of June.
ETH vs BTC weekly price chart
The two largest market capitalizations are therefore climbing in unison, however, Ethereum has a slight advantage over BTC.
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Ethereum: Back in the Positive Polarity Zone
Pairs with Ethereum | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
Ethereum/USDT | +2.10% | +12.90% | -0.80% |
Ethereum/Bitcoin | -0.60% | +1.20% | +0.20% |
👉 How to easily buy Ethereum (ETH) in 2024?
Yes, Ethereum is back above its pivot zone between $3,350 and $3,450.
Yes, Ethereum has broken through the 7-week and 20-week moving averages.
Two very positive elements at a time when everyone wants to see the technical rebound transform into an upward movement in the medium term.
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The first point that will weigh the resistance break is the absence of a weekly close above the level. The second point is the failure to cross the highs of the corrective candle from early July.
While settling above the yellow pivot zone with 2 consecutive weekly closes above the level would be an excellent signal of a return to the positive polarity zone on Ethereum, crossing the top of this witness candle is just as much key information for the future. In addition, swallowing the early July movement in 2 candles would be an excellent signal to target the 2024 highs.
In the south, it is now a done deal, the lows of May 2024 must hold to avoid tipping into a medium-term bearish trend. This change could lead price action to the 50-week moving average. However, if a bullish recovery following the ongoing technical rebound fails, disappointment could even lead Ethereum into a significant capitulation leading it to visit support between $2,000 and $2,200.
This is a scenario that is however unlikely at this stage, as ETH has shown strength in the correction of recent weeks and managed to maintain a neutral trend, unlike BTC or many other cryptocurrencies on the market. That said, in the event of a more global reversal of crypto assets, this scenario could be considered.
ETH Price Chart Weekly
On a daily basis, Yesterday's hammer-shaped close with absorption below the 7- and 20-week moving averages and a perfect retest of $3,350 marks the presence of buyers. They seem ready to defend the asset's polarity by positioning themselves on excesses below this level.
However, the bearish 50-day moving average could put short-term pressure on prices, especially given its proximity to the upper Bollinger Band at $3,600. The asset could therefore need a few days to build a sustainable bullish move. That said, the sma7D and sma20D crossover is already an interesting first step.
I therefore expect a confirmation that could soon take place in a retest of the 20-day moving average located around $3,200 in order to confirm it as support. This slight digestion phase would be my favorite scenario for the next few days, but other scenarios are also possible, especially if volatility continues to increase.
In addition, breaking through the $3,600 to $3,700 levels could quickly align all moving averages upwards in an impulsive move towards $4,000. To the south, a return to the $2,800 to $3,000 zone could mark a new and final hunt for liquidity. However, the May 2024 low must hold at the close to avoid tipping the cursor towards a majority of bearish scenarios.
ETH price chart daily
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ETH, an impulsive configuration measurable in 4 hours
In 4-hour data, the configuration on Ethereum is clear: openings of the Bollinger bands and alignment of the moving averages to the upside. Perfect representation of what the bullish camp will seek to draw in daily.
At the time of writing, the 7-point moving average is being worked on and if it were to give way, then the most direct level to the south is located in the confluence of the yellow zone and the 20-point moving average in orange. In excess, we could target $3,200, and the average at SMA50 H4 to relaunch the bullish impulse. To the north, the upper BB seems to be flattening out, it confirms a resistance zone at $3,600.
ETH Price Chart vs Altcoin Market
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In summary, Ethereum reacts very well on the support of 2,800 dollars with a very nice technical rebound. Rebound that we would like to call a bullish recovery. For this, it will be necessary to confirm the supports in a lower point higher than the previous one. Two weekly closings above the 3,350 to 3,450 zone will however be enough for me to validate the positive polarity of the asset. To the south, it is the support of 2,800 dollars which guarantees the maintenance in a neutral or even bullish medium-term trend on Ethereum.
So, do you think ETH can outperform the crypto market again? Please feel free to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a great day and we'll see you next week for another technical analysis of altcoins.
Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, GlassnodeETF
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