“A certain resilience”: France is not heading towards a recession in 2025, according to forecasts from the Banque de France. But the recovery is weaker than expected, according to its governor, François Villeroy de Galhau. What to expect?
No recession in France in 2025 according to François Villeroy de Galhau
Guest of RTL this morning, the governor of the Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau was cautious, but optimistic. According to him, there will be no recession in the coming monthseven if uncertainty still reigns on several points:
“The French economy is holding up with growth which has certainly slowed to 1.1% this year and 0.9% next year. […] This is less good than we hoped because uncertainties have increased in the national and international environment. »
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The recovery was in fact hoped for next year, so it will be postponed. That said, the situation is not as worrying as with our neighborsagain according to the governor of the Bank of France:
“It’s not yet the recovery we were hoping for. It is postponed a little until 2026. It is also not the recession that some fear or that we see in Germany”
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Inflation finally slows
François Villeroy de Galhau, however, underlined the “victory “ against inflationwhich fell back below 2% over the year. He therefore estimates that it will remain below this threshold for the next 3 years.
“This has two positive consequences: the first is purchasing power, because since the start of the year, salaries have increased faster than prices on average in France. [Et] this will allow us to continue to lower our interest rates. »
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The Governor of the Bank of France notes a slowdown in inflation on food and servicesalthough prices are higher than 3 years ago. However, he affirms that the budget crisis must be resolved quickly otherwise France will suffer a “depression »compared to the rest of Europe.
The new Bayrou government is being formed in France, after the Barnier government was censored. The coming weeks will therefore be crucial in order to validate the finance bill for 2025.
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Source: RTL via Dailymotion
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Journalist at Cryptoast since 2017, I am passionate about the issues of decentralization, privacy and regulation. I specialize in traditional economics and finance by analyzing how industry news influences the cryptocurrency industry, providing a unique and informed perspective to Cryptoast readers.
Marine Debelloir
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