Colorado State University (CSU) are warning of an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season, predicting a record number of 11 hurricanes, with five of them potentially being “major” (Category 3-5, with sustained winds of 180 km/h or higher).
CSU researchers say there’s 62% chance a major hurricane could make landfall at any point somewhere along the entire U.S. coastline (the average chance from 1880–2020 is 43%). Often, hurricanes hitting the eastern U.S. coastline bend towards the Canadian Maritimes, morphing into powerful post-tropical storms.
Hurricane Fiona, a Category 4 hurricane, did just that in 2022, making it the most damaging hurricane to make landfall in Canada. Fiona caused more than $800 million in insured damage, Catastrophe Indices and Quantification (CatIQ) reported at the time, and adjusters are still cleaning up the mess.
“While it’s hoped that the region never again experience a storm of this magnitude, several environmental conditions indicate that the Atlantic coast could be in for a particularly severe hurricane season this year,” Insurance Bureau of Canada stated in a press release today, cautioning Atlantic Canadians about the 2024 hurricane forecast.
Home insurance policies typically cover damage caused by a windstorm or rain, including losses caused by flying debris or fallen trees and/or branches. Also, losses due to water entering the damaged home — i.e. because of wind or flying debris causing openings in the home — are covered.
But home policies do not cover water losses caused by storm surge. Some auto policies cover storm surge damage if drivers purchase optional comprehensive or all perils coverage.
When Fiona hit the Maritimes in 2022, many properties were not covered because people lived in high-risk flood zones, IBC notes. This is still a live issue heading into the 2024 hurricane season, since the federal government’s wide-anticipated National Flood Program is not yet established.
“Canada’s P&C insurance industry and the federal government have already begun working to rapidly scale and start delivering the program in 2025,” says Amanda Dean, IBC’s vice president of the Ontario and Atlantic regions. “However, the needed conversations between federal and provincial governments have yet to take place. Without the required federal and provincial funding arrangement, Canadians at the highest risk of flooding will not be adequately protected.”
The average number of hurricanes predicted in any given year between 1991 and 2020 is 7.2. The average number of major hurricanes during the same period is 3.2.
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Record-high ocean temperatures are causing a lower barometric pressure, leading to an unstable atmosphere, CSU researchers say. Plus, favourable hurricane conditions include a change in wind patterns associated with the shift from a cyclical El Nino climate pattern to La Nina.
As Dean explains: “Warm water, moist air and converging winds are three of the main factors that cause a hurricane to form. Because heat acts as fuel for storms, this year’s warmer water can create bigger and stronger hurricanes. In February 2024, the Weather Network reported that temperatures in one part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean were already as warm as they usually are in the middle of July.”
CSU cautions its models are based on early patterns, so the science is not exact. The actual number of hurricanes will be based on conditions closer to the time of the official start of the hurricane season, which is June 1, lasting until Nov. 30.
Nevertheless, CSU researchers are advising coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” says one of the authors of the CSU research, Professor Michael Bell.
Feature image courtesy of iStock.com/buradaki
