What’s new about the protests in Iran, how do you view it?
The most interesting aspect for me is the significant participation of women of all ages. You can see it in the slogan “Women, Life, Peace”. This is a renewal of the motto of the French Revolution “Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité”, with an update of the patriarchal word “fraternity”. So much for the optimistic part.
How powerful are today’s protests compared to previous ones?
You have to look at things soberly. The protests now are getting a lot of attention in the West and in the media, far more than the protests of 2009 and 2019, even though significantly more people took part back then. In 2009, tens of thousands took to the streets in Iran, and in 2019 thousands again took part in the protests, 1,500 people died. This time, if we look closely at the videos, we see hundreds of protesters, apart from minority towns like Sanandaj.
How long will the demonstrations go on now?
We are nearing the end of the protests. Most parts of Iran are now calm, save perhaps for the impoverished provinces of Kordistan and Sistan and Balochistan, where the situation remains tense and where the security forces are cracking down. During the 2009 protests we still saw many apolitical people at the demonstrations, this is not the case today. Unlike then, most people now go to work every day, even though they may support the demonstrations in spirit. But the vast majority of Iranians stay away. We are far from a general strike today.
Images from Iran seem to speak a different language.
One reason for the intense, ongoing coverage of the protests in the West is the large Iranian diaspora. Millions of Iranians live outside the country. A large part of the diaspora wants change and is amplifying the voices of protesters in Iran. Saudi-funded TV channels like Iran International also report in a very supportive way. Even in Germany, recognized scientists like Adnan Tabatabai are being viciously attacked for their position by some ideologically-leaning media outlets. All in all, there is a lot of bickering in the diaspora, but it has no bearing on what is really going on in Iran. Ultimately, the real hope lies in Iran and in the Iranian men and women who are bravely risking their lives to improve living conditions and political life in Iran.
Where are the leaders of today’s protests?
They are definitely leaderless protests. I don’t see any character that could come up now and reform the system. Not from the people, not from the establishment, not from the security forces and certainly not from the diaspora. The lack of leadership makes the protests inherently democratic. This is a blessing, but also a curse: the protests are organized philosophically, not politically. Apart from “Woman, Life, Freedom”, which expresses a grand humanist-feminist philosophical ideal, the protests do not pursue a coherent political agenda. Except that they are calling for the compulsory hijab to be abolished. Apart from that, the demands are incoherent. Some want to change the entire regime. Voices chanting “Down with the system” get a lot of attention. But there are many others who would be happy with economic reform and better job prospects. Already in 2009 and 2019, many Iranians called for economic reforms and shouted anti-corruption slogans. And even then there were those who chanted goals and slogans that were directed against the establishment. We shouldn’t just highlight one type of voice.
Does this mean that democracy is not necessarily the common goal?
In my experience, many Iranians want a decent labor market and economic reforms. As long as the standard of living improves, they would be content. But I’m not very optimistic that the current political system can reform in the face of this zeitgeist. Corruption is rampant.
Not only Iran’s economy seems to be going down the drain.
The whole system in Iran makes the people feel suffocated. Imagine a room full of gas: a tiny spark can start a new round of protests. There just isn’t enough oxygen in the system. It’s too much corruption, too much oppression. Now the spark was the hijab, in 2019 it was the rise in gas prices. Next time it will be something different. Be it in two months, in two years or in two decades.
dr Mohammadbagher Forough works at the Leibniz Institute for Global and Regional Studies in Hamburg.
