The year 2025 begins with the hope of all crypto investors to see it align with previous cycles for Bitcoin. The post-halving year is often the most explosive of the cycle! The first signals in this direction could be given or invalidated this week with the re-entry of the American markets.
A week full of information!
It is Monday January 6, 2025 and the price of Bitcoin is moving around $99,000.
Our last Bitcoin analysis was on December 16, 2024, when the BTC price was $103,600. Since then, annual closings have been carried out, both on assets and among the largest players in the market.
This cohort of investors has had a stranglehold on the market for many months: the influx of capital flowing into ETF products creates organic buying pressure. This week will also mark the first anniversary of these products, a year which has allowed them to break numerous records.
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If the price movements of the last fortnight of 2024 can be explained in part by the accounting closings of institutional investors, the rebirth of seller flows on BlackRock's IBIT has particularly marked people's minds, as it has, throughout of the past year, sent relevant signals regarding the actions taken by professional traders.
The recovery of the markets is therefore eagerly awaited this weekwith a bullish camp driven by the hope of confirmation of the excellent signals issued on Friday January 3, which accumulated $907 million in inflows for American spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The movements that will take place in the coming days could be rich in information to determine the trend of the next 12 months, with a benchmark that we can all already position on our charts: the close of the year 2024 at 93,466 dollars.
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin/USDT | +1.30% | +5.60% | -0.80% |
| ETH/Bitcoin | -0.50% | +1.00% | -8.00% |
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A multi-week range for Bitcoin?
The price of BTC is once again working the resistance of $100,000 at the start of the week. We knew that this level had to be key for the crypto cycle that we are currently going through and which could mark its peak in 2025.
The December 2024 candle provides an excellent reference for bounding price action: the high at $108,287.62 (ATH) and the low on December 5 at $91,186 define a range whose center is precisely at $100,000.
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Thus, the $100,000 zone marks the polarity of Bitcoin, which would evolve more favorably upwards once this psychological barrier is reconquered. This movement could allow the underlying trend to continue by crossing the current historic peak.
However, this scenario is not the most likely for the moment: BTC remains in a negative polarity within the range. The very timid crossing this morning of the December 26 peak is insufficient to realign the daily upward trend. It rather suggests a search for a trough higher than the previous one in the lower zone of the range.
However, the day has only just begun. The US opening at 3:30 p.m. could catalyze prices to the north and allow resistance to be broken. If this scenario were to develop, the trough marking the trend reversal could then be above $100,000.
The 2024 close is also a major level of interest; settling below at the weekly close would, in my opinion, be a correction signal. On the other hand, a movement to hunt for liquidity below remains possible before the asset is ready to definitively free itself from the range which seems to be taking shape.
Daily Bitcoin price graph
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In summaryBitcoin is moving in a range between its all-time high and the $90,000 level. These areas of interest are particularly well defined by the monthly candle of December 2024, which now constitutes an important benchmark for the further evolution of the asset.
So, do you think BTC can cross $110,000? Don't hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we’ll see you next week for a new analysis of Bitcoin.
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Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode
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Investments in cryptocurrencies are risky. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with high return potential involves high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your capacity to lose part of this savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital
Analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I carry out in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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