Donald Trump therefore won the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5 and he will become the 47th President of the United States on January 20 for a 4-year term. The latter should support the bull run as Donald Trump has positioned himself in favor of cryptocurrencies. But be careful, there are certain nuances to be made.
On paper, Donald Trump's victory is favorable to Bitcoin
Throughout his electoral campaign, Donald Trump had a widely assumed pro-crypto position to address directly the 50 million Americans who hold crypto.
Bitcoin strategic reserve, dismissal of Gary Gensler (head of the SEC), relaxation of regulation and taxation linked to the crypto market, BTC mining in the United States, so many factors that made Bitcoin a “Trump Trade”.
Added to this is the fact that Donald Trump surrounded himself with political and economic figures promoting Bitcoin like Republican MP Patrick McHenry, Senator Cynthia Lummis and Mick Mulvaney, Trump's former acting chief of staff.
But above all they are Elon Musk, Robert Kennedy Jr and JD Vance who push the most in favor of BTC and cryptocurrencies.
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Soon to take on leading political responsibilities, these men will clearly contribute to keeping Trump in a pro-Bitcoin position, which will be a major basis for the bull run expected for most of 2025.
The price of Bitcoin is in fact starting this fall the last phase of its 4-year cycle, the so-called bull run which should see it succeed in clearly exceeding its old historical record.
As far as I am concerned, the target of $200,000 seems to me to be the minimum target to consider for the end of 2025.
So much for the market view over the next 12 months. On the other hand, caution in the short term, it is imperative to achieve a bullish break of the ATH of 73,700 dollars at the daily close to give the bullish signal.
Chart that outlines the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin from its origins to today. My target of $200,000 is planned for October 2025
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Be careful, there are nevertheless nuances that could slow down Bitcoin
Tax cuts, widening budget deficit, trade war with China and Europe… These prospects combined under the next presidency of Donald Trump may represent a risk for Bitcoin and especially for altcoins, due to market correlations.
A second wave of inflation could begin with an upward impact on interest rates and the dollar, and a real threat to the continuation of rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve.
If the Fed does not extend its rate cuts in 2025 due to the effects of the Trump Administration's fiscal and trade policy, this will be a brake on bitcoin's bull run and above all a real obstacle for altcoins. We must therefore keep the trend in market interest rates under close surveillance because a rise in the 10-year US bond (see graph below) to 5% would be a downward factor for altcoins.
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Chart showing the 10-year US bond rate in daily Japanese candles
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Vincent Ganne is a recognized expert in technical analysis with 18 years of experience. He frequently speaks on BFM Business and produces exclusive analyzes for Cryptoast Research. Drawing on his extensive experience, Vincent offers a holistic approach to financial markets, taking into account macroeconomic events and using many aspects of graphical analysis to forecast trends in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the medium to long term. He also held the position of Senior Market Analyst & Business Development Manager for 3 years at TradingView, strengthening his in-depth knowledge of financial markets.
Vincent Ganne
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