The Bitcoin (BTC) price has suffered a flash crash like that of the stock market indices. These are probably the last opportunities of the summer to get in at a good price and aim for $100,000 by spring 2025.
The US economy is not in recession, once and for all!
The rise in the US unemployment rate to 4.3% of the labor force in the latest NFP update and, in general, the recent worrying statistical updates on the US labor market, have rekindled the debate on the likelihood of a recession in the US economy. As the world's largest economy, the latter can have a global-macro contagion effect.
This is all the more worrying since Jerome Powell's Fed does not seem to be in a hurry to pivot, even though the door was opened to a pivot at the meeting on September 18 (My strong belief is that the FED will pivot on September 18, perhaps even make two rate cuts at once due to very good surprises to come in the next inflation figures.).
But let's be clear: the US economy is not in recession at this point.nor even in technical recession (see the latest GDP data), At worst, it is on pre-alert.
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The recent poor figures on the US labour market are a warning signal, but there is no indication at the moment that this deterioration is not temporary and simply cyclical. Most structural indicators of the US labor market are looking good, so we will have to wait for the next update of the US NFP report (early September) to get a more precise idea.
On the other hand, it is accepted that the trend in the US unemployment rate is bad and that the FED probably made a mistake in not pivoting at the beginning of spring, especially since the leading indicators of disinflation allow us to be optimistic.
I remain convinced that the FED's pivot will be for the right reason, disinflation, and therefore that the fundamental effect will be bullish for the crypto market for the fall/winter period.
Graph representing the US unemployment rate as a % of the active population (source BLS)
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Last sales before Bitcoin's $100,000 in 2025?
The Bitcoin price suffered a flash crash towards 49,000 US dollars but this fall does not call into question the bullish technical construction that has been developing since January 2023.
The BTC/USD pair is describing a sideways transition wave below its ex-ATH, this is a classic pause pattern before it can finally breakout and make new all-time highs.
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I expect these new all-time highs to be made this year-end and altcoins to rebound vigorously, especially since BTC dominance (see below) is under major resistance.
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Chart of Bitcoin dominance across the entire cryptocurrency market
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Vincent Ganne is a recognized expert in technical analysis with 18 years of experience. He frequently appears on BFM Business and produces exclusive analyses for Cryptoast Research. With his extensive experience, Vincent offers a global approach to financial markets, taking into account macroeconomic events and using many aspects of graphical analysis to forecast the trends of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the medium and long term. He also held the position of Senior Market Analyst & Business Development Manager for 3 years at TradingView, thus reinforcing his in-depth knowledge of financial markets.
Vincent Ganne
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