Minister, Latvia is the center of the Baltic States. Does it make you feel safer than your two neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania?
We don’t feel safer or more insecure, the situation is one hundred percent the same. We all border Russia and its ally Belarus. Militarily, all three Baltic States are considered as one territory. We plan our defense together. And our cooperation assumes that if one country is attacked, troops from the other two countries can cross borders without major legal complications.
How dangerous do you currently consider the situation on NATO’s eastern flank?
After the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian presence on our borders has been reduced by more than half. In some estimates we see that it may even be just over thirty percent. But the Russians are also more active in Belarus at the moment. In the last few days they have moved some equipment, as well as Russian soldiers to the borders of Belarus.
What could the troops be used for?
In any case, they are incapable of launching any kind of invasion of the Baltic States. But of course we prepared. We’re not afraid, we just take it seriously. If the West – we – won’t win the war together with Ukraine, then that will definitely encourage the Russians to start another one.
In Germany, there are concerns that Russia could open a second front while Russian forces are still tied up in Ukraine. You say you are not able to do that despite the partial mobilization?
There is currently no chance for a second front. And I’m not just saying that as Latvian Defense Minister. I served in the Soviet military myself. I know what the armed forces used to look like and what they look like now. The mobilization will only increase dissent in Russia. It shows how corrupt the country is. And militarily, these people just aren’t fit to fight.
Nuclear maneuvers are currently underway both on the part of NATO and on the part of Russia. . .
. . . these are both planned exercises, even if they overlap with the Ukraine war this year.
How likely do you think it is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons as the Ukraine war escalates?
When it comes to defense, we always have to consider the worst possible scenarios. If they don’t come, then that’s good. We could assume that the Russians are using some kind of tactical weapon in Ukraine. Or they could fabricate some kind of radioactive threat by messing something up in a nuclear power plant, for example. But what would be the purpose? You can’t win by that, it wouldn’t even affect the war in Ukraine. I believe that Russians are neither crazy nor stupid. Despite their total miscalculation in attacking Ukraine.
Which way leads out of the war?
That’s the hundred dollar question. If we look at the history of Russia, regimes have always been brought down in only two ways: by revolution or by coup d’etat. At the moment, Russia is not ready to take a seat at the negotiating table. At least not Putin, otherwise he would do it. That means we will probably have to continue this war until Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine. You have to be willing – I don’t want to use the word “surrender” – to lose the war.
The German government strictly avoids such statements.
I already registered that at the NATO summit in Madrid. Germans may avoid the word “surrender” lest they question the already lost masculinity of Russia’s political leadership. But it’s about winning. You must lose. In fact, it would be psychologically healthy for the Russians to finally lose the war. It never occurred to them that they had done anything wrong to anyone. You don’t learn from victories, you learn from defeats, just like German society did after the end of the Second World War.
According to a survey, a majority of Germans still reject a military leadership role. What are your expectations of our country?
We expect more courage from German society and faster reactions from the federal government. Almost everything depends on Germany. We are at war. And that’s where the largest country has to lead.
And it doesn’t?
It’s not easy because German society was pacifist for decades. Perhaps the Baltic states have higher demands on Germany in times of war than it can fulfil. But more and more people are asking if the Germans are reliable partners. Would German society be willing to give their lives for our freedom? When I see how Germany, but also France and other countries initially supported Ukraine, I have my doubts. The Baltic States are small. We can’t afford a Bucha or Mariupol. We need German troops and a political language and military capabilities that take this sufficiently into account.
