WWhilst life expectancy in most Western European countries is gradually recovering after the pandemic-related declines, Eastern European countries and the USA in particular have seen a sustained drop in life expectancy. This was found by an international group of researchers led by Jonas Schöley from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock as part of a comparative study in which they analyzed data from 29 countries. They have now published their results in the journal “Nature Human Behaviour”.
To determine changes in life expectancy since the beginning of the pandemic, they documented the mortality of different age groups. They also compared the development of life expectancy over the course of the pandemic with historical falls in life expectancy over the past 120 years. Above all, it was possible to see that life expectancy recovered within one to two years, even after drastic events such as the First World War or the Spanish flu.
Lowest level in the US since 1996
The comparative study showed that the life expectancy of all 29 countries in 2021 was lower than assumed in 2019, led by Bulgaria with a net loss of 43 months within two years, followed by Slovakia with 33 months and the USA with around 29 months. According to the US National Center for Health Statistics, life expectancy in the US is at its lowest level since 1996. It fell by three years for men to 73 years and for women by 2.3 years to 79 years. This means that the difference in life expectancy between men and women at six years is greater than it has been for 26 years.
The researchers also observed that the effect of decreasing life expectancy in 2021 increasingly shifted to those under 60 years of age. For the majority of countries, the 60-79 age group was the main reason for the decrease in life expectancy, with the exception of Scotland and Germany. While in Scotland the 40-59 age group made the largest contribution, in Germany it was the 80+ age group.
Many Western European countries such as Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden and France have now returned to the same life expectancy level as before the pandemic, or are on the way there. Denmark, Finland and Norway, for example, have managed to maintain their life expectancy despite the many deaths – which the researchers say could be due to a combination of a successful vaccination campaign and a high basic capacity of the health system.
Regional differences in Germany
The Federal Institute for Population Research (BIB) recorded a decrease in life expectancy of 0.2 years for men and 0.1 years for women in the course of the first corona year 2020. In 2021, it fell by a further 0.4 years for men and by 0.3 years for women. “The last time a decline of this magnitude was recorded was at the end of the GDR,” said Sebastian Klüsener, research director at the BIB.
With regional differences: The eastern German states, such as Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony, were particularly affected – life expectancy there fell by around one and a half years for men and by a year for women. In Schleswig-Holstein, on the other hand, life expectancy increased by 0.2 years for men between 2019 and 2021, while there was a decrease of 0.2 years for women.
