Dhe Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan meets Vladimir Putin very regularly. On Thursday, an Asian security conference in the Kazakh capital of Astana prompted the fourth meeting in just four months. Before leaving Ankara, Erdogan had reiterated his wish to bring the presidents of Russia and Ukraine together in Turkey for talks. On the eve of the Astana conference, however, Putin said Turkey could be a hub for Russian gas destined for Europe. He would also rather speak to US President Joe Biden than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Just as the presidents seem to be talking past each other, so is the case with the foreign ministers. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Turkish press reports, sees Erdogan as the politician who could make it possible for the West to talk to Putin, his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions and the Russian special mobilization would do the trick situation much more difficult.
Turkish concerns about Zaporizhia
And yet, from a Turkish perspective, there are some things that are worth talking to Erdogan about with Putin. During the public part of the conference in Astana, Erdogan made it clear how keen he is to extend the agreement to export grain through a corridor in the Black Sea protected by the Turkish Navy, which expires at the end of November. Turkey is also looking at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant with great concern. Should nuclear material escape there, Turkey would be severely affected. The distance between the power plant and the north coast of Turkey is less than 900 kilometers. A radioactive cloud had already reached Turkey after the reactor accident in 1986 in Chernobyl, which was further away.
Erdogan also needs to talk to Putin about natural gas. While the ruler in the Kremlin wants to pump more gas to south-eastern Europe and possibly beyond through the Turkstream pipeline, which will open in 2020, sources in Ankara say Erdogan is keen to wait until the next elections, which are expected to take place in June 2023, to pay Turkey’s gas bills. to settle. He won’t get it without something in return. One price could be the willingness for gas to continue flowing to Europe through Turkstream. Half of the pipeline capacity of 32 billion cubic meters is destined for the countries of south-eastern Europe.
Putin is also Erdogan’s contact for Syria. Months ago, Erdogan announced another invasion of northern Syria in order to create a buffer to the areas administered by the Kurds and space for Syrian refugees to return from Turkey. According to Ankara, Russia, which has air sovereignty over Syria, will only tolerate this if Erdogan approaches the Syrian ruler Assad and gives up his protective function for the armed Syrian rebels.
Last week, Erdogan said for the first time that a meeting with Assad was possible provided that conditions, which he did not name, were met. Talks between the secret services of the two countries have been going on for a long time. Another issue for Erdogan and Putin is the voluminous Russian funds parked and possibly laundered in Turkey. Turkey is competing with the United Arab Emirates.
In Turkey, Erdogan has received a lot of praise for his course towards Putin. Ankara cannot remain passive because the situation in Ukraine is of paramount importance for Turkey’s security. Because Turkey does not want to go to war with Russia or lose its important ally Ukraine.
However, there is a big discrepancy between the population and the decision-makers in Ankara. According to a survey by the German Marshall Fund in spring, 84 percent of the population are in favor of either remaining neutral on the war or mediating. Erdogan is also striving for such mediation. The majority of Turks continue to see the United States as the country’s main enemy, while the security apparatus is wary of Russia. After all, the Ottoman Empire had lost so many wars and so much land to no other country than to Russia.
