The market woke up suddenly this Wednesday following the election of Donald Trump. Favorable to cryptocurrencies, this could consolidate an environment in which the crypto ecosystem could develop more peacefully. Could Aether take this opportunity to regain strength?
Is Ether capable of reviving itself?
It is Friday, November 8, 2024 and the price of ETH is moving around $2,900.
Ethereum has been navigating a phase of speculative wandering for several months, underperforming several market projects that covet its position as the leader of altcoins. However, beyond speculation, everything seems to be progressing in an orderly manner for Ether.
EIP 4844 and the appearance of blobs undoubtedly impact the network much more than many observers expected. This update mainly affected mainnet congestion and layer 2 fees. This development leads to greater inflation of Ethereum and lower revenue for the protocol.
However, this is a direction desired by the entire community, because Ethereum has always been criticized for its high transaction fees, which can explode during periods of high activity. However, since March 2024, activity has been low on the Ethereum blockchain. But could the return of sustained activity in the ecosystem revive the speculative aspect of ETH?
The answer is complex, because it is currently difficult to determine, apart from price developments, what lever will allow Ethereum to regain its place as the undisputed leader of altcoins.
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| Pairs with Ethereum | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Ethereum/USDT | +3.60% | +16.10% | +20.00% |
| Ethereum/Bitcoin | +1.90% | +6.60% | -2.10% |
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Ethereum: turnaround time for relative strength?
At the end of August 2024, the ETH/TOTAL3 pair crossed the lower bound of the range in which price action had been operating since March 2023. Since then, prices have been oscillating below this zone while remaining above a key psychological level: the ratio 0.5.
The week is not yet closed, but the current configuration shows a nice reaction with a surpassing of the peaks of the ongoing consolidation. If the weekly close were to confirm this signal, we could envisage a reconquest of the blue zone, which would imply a reintegration of the range.
This reintegration would be favorably bullish for the relative strength of Ethereum, which could then aim for the top of its range and once again attract arbitrage in its favor.
The invalidation of this scenario would occur in the event of a return below the 0.52 level for the ETH/TOTAL3 pair, which would imply a resumption of consolidation and suggest a revisit of the last low points.
Chart of Ethereum against TOTAL3 weekly
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Against Bitcointhe situation is evolving, since the price action has reached the pivot of the bull run of 2021, in confluence with the bottom of the channel in which the chart has been registered since September 2022. In contact with this double level, the pair ETH/ BTC is reacting positively by breaking through last week’s highs.
Stuck under resistance, it will still take an effort with the crossing of the top of the candle at the end of October to display a favorable signal. This move could allow Ethereum to build a sideways transition base before considering a trend reversal.
The first step would be to validate a close above last week's weekly highs. If Ether manages to achieve this feat, it will have to leave behind the lows achieved this week and no longer close below. In this case, we could see Ethereum rebuild a bullish phase against BTC.
Ethereum vs. Bitcoin Weekly Chart
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Ethereum shows strength against the dollar
A few weeks ago, we talked about the construction of an ascending triangle on Ethereum, which would be resolved if the zone drawn in blue was crossed. This structure is currently being resolved upwards with validation recorded in a 3-day time unit. To confirm this signal, we want to see the weekly candle close above the 50-week moving average.
Bullish targets if confirmed this Sunday could quickly propel prices towards $3,160 before working the exit zone to prepare for a rebound towards $3,400 to $3,500.
The invalidation of this bullish continuation would be triggered by a re-entry below $2,750, i.e. below the blue zone. This move could lead price action towards a revisit of $2,500.
ETH price chart in 3 days
In summary, ETH is still in difficulty against Bitcoin and Total3. However, the strong performance against the dollar with the crossing of the 2024 pivot zone could lead Ether to mark a low point in its relative strength. The closing on Sunday evening will undoubtedly be decisive for the future.
So, do you think ETH can outperform the crypto market again? Don't hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we'll see you next week for a new technical analysis of Ethereum.
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Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, GlassnodeETF
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Analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I carry out in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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