Dhe Austrian state of Tyrol has been a stronghold for the Christian Democratic ÖVP for 77 years, which was considered virtually impregnable. Missing an absolute majority was considered a defeat, there were even two-thirds majorities. Those times are long gone. But in the election on Sunday, the ÖVP slipped as deep as never before. And since this had been apparent for some time, not only the state party, which has been used to success, but also the Chancellor’s party ÖVP is now uneasy.
Paradoxically, however, it could be stabilized for the time being by the foreseeable poor election result in Tyrol. Despite everything, first place and the post of governor in Innsbruck were retained, and the losses, as they say in stock exchange German, are already “priced in”.
For the Austrian Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer, according to assessments in Vienna, the important thing was whether the result of his party in the west of the country would be “bad, very bad or catastrophic”. Because the next state election in an ÖVP stronghold is due in spring 2023, namely in Lower Austria. The state is significantly larger and more important than Tyrol, and the state party there under state governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner will not want to take any risks.
Federal issues pull ÖVP down
Since Sebastian Kurz left politics, “St. Pölten”, the Lower Austrian state capital, is increasingly in charge again in the ÖVP. It is no coincidence that the new ÖVP General Secretary Christian Stocker, whose name party leader Nehammer announced on Friday, is from Lower Austria. His first official act will be to comment on the Tyrolean result, and the feared catastrophe has not happened.
Specifically, the ÖVP received 34.7 percent of the votes, almost ten points less than in the previous election in 2018. The right-wing FPÖ (18.8) left the social democratic SPÖ (17.5) behind. Also in the state parliament are List Fritz (9.9), originally an ÖVP split, the Greens (9.2) and the liberal NEOS (6.3). It is therefore no longer enough for the ÖVP-Green coalition to continue, a black-red alliance is emerging. That, too, seems like a return to familiar structures that could well rub off on the federal government.
In view of the devastating poll numbers in the summer, the previous governor Günther Platter had announced his departure, called early elections and proclaimed the mayor of Galtür, Anton Mattle, as the new man of the ÖVP for Tyrol. Platter, however, remained seated in the governor’s chair. In order to build up a real bonus in office, the time for Mattle would probably have been too short. It was up to him to play off his long experience as a local politician. During the severe avalanche accident in Galtür in 1999, which claimed 38 lives, he had to prove himself as mayor of the community. He only came into the state government this spring.
But it was above all federal issues that pulled the ÖVP down in what is sometimes mockingly called the “holy land of Tyrol”: On the one hand, there are the many allegations and affairs from Sebastian Kurz’s once so successful era. Another federal issue that generated latent dissatisfaction was the erratic and unsatisfactory corona policy – keyword compulsory vaccination, which was introduced, never enforced and then abolished without further ado. While this issue has receded into the background, at least before the onset of winter, the general crisis of inflation and energy shortages is now adding to the burden on the government.
