Power ritual in Beijing: This is how Xi Jinping’s party congress works

Dhe Chinese writer Hu Minzhi wrote a poem for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party. “More than a billion people are waiting for the wind,” it says. “Government officials are waiting, entrepreneurs and ordinary people are waiting too. We have no idea if the wind will come from the east or the west. Whether the wind will blow forwards or backwards.” Her sarcastic lines were quickly deleted from the internet and the author called “for tea” by the police.

Whether the wind is blowing forwards or backwards may already be seen this Sunday morning. Then Xi Jinping, as the party’s secretary-general, will present his work report to almost 2,300 delegates in the Great Hall of the People. One can expect basic guidelines from him for the next five years. At the last party congress, his speech lasted three hours and 23 minutes. In it, Xi proclaimed the beginning of a “new era” and announced that China would “advance closer to the center (of the world)”. That was his domestic and foreign policy ambitions.

This time, the population is primarily concerned with one question: when will the strict zero-Covid policy be relaxed? Up until a few days ago, everyone was saying that this would be the case immediately after the party congress. The underlying belief was that the strategy was being maintained solely to save Xi Jinping’s face before the party congress and because party cadres across the country wanted to show their loyalty. In the past few days, however, the party has dampened hopes. A top government adviser said on state television there was no timeline for an opening.

Foreign policy expertise is lost

In Xi’s speech, business representatives will look between the lines for clues as to whether the head of state and party leader intends to continue to patronize the private sector and how he intends to implement his concept of wealth redistribution. Hints at future Taiwan policy, relations with America and the role of the military can also be expected. Many passages will be identical to the previous work report. It gets interesting when this isn’t the case.

The political climax comes on the seventh and final day of the assembly week, when the new Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful body, presents itself to the public. Xi Jinping is likely to be the first to take the stage, confirming that he will remain in office for at least another five years. It is eagerly awaited who will replace the members who are retiring due to age. From this one may be able to tell whether Xi was able to push through his closest followers or had to make concessions when filling individual posts. The order in which the men take the stage will shed light on who might succeed Li Keqiang as premier in March. The head of government is traditionally responsible for economic policy, which is why business representatives are hoping for a candidate who is close to the private sector. However, in the past, Xi has also usurped authority over economic policy and sidelined Premier Li.