TDespite bulging order books, production at German companies is not really gaining momentum due to material shortages and the war in the Ukraine. Industry, construction and energy suppliers together produced 0.7 percent more than in the previous month, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters news agency had expected a stronger 1.0 percent rise after a 3.7 percent slump in March following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Companies are still far away from the pre-crisis level,” said economic expert Jupp Zenzen from the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). “Due to the delivery bottlenecks and increased prices, it is hardly possible for many companies to process their orders in full.”
The Federal Ministry of Economics commented on the development that industrial production is currently being dampened by the Russian war of aggression. “On the one hand, as an export-oriented country, Germany is disproportionately affected by the trade sanctions against Russia,” said department head Robert Habeck. “On the other hand, war-related production losses and disrupted supply chains result in a shortage of important intermediate goods.”
The order books are full to the brim: since June 2020, industrial companies have received more new orders month by month than they were able to process – with the exception of January 2022. However, car manufacturers, for example, lack the coveted microchips, which is why they do not have as many vehicles despite strong demand can produce as actually possible. The result: the range of orders on hand is now at a record eight months. “Since the beginning of the pandemic, the order backlog has increased by 30 percent,” said Nils Jannsen, head of economic activity at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). This corresponds to more than 15 percent of annual production or a value added of around 100 billion euros. “This thick order cushion represents a buffer against further short-term declines in incoming orders,” explained Jannsen. “However, it will probably take a long time to overcome the global supply bottlenecks in the long term.”
Traffic jams in the North Sea
Germany’s most important trading partner China is fighting corona outbreaks with tough lockdowns, which paralyzed the economic metropolis of Shanghai with its huge port for weeks. The lack of advance work from the People’s Republic is likely to have a delay in production due to the delivery times. According to the IfW, traffic jams and delays in container shipping have now also reached the North Sea. “For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, container ships are also damming up in the North Sea off the ports of Germany, Holland and Belgium,” say the researchers. “Currently, almost two percent of the global freight capacity is stuck here and cannot be loaded or unloaded.”
Many industrial companies are currently reporting bottlenecks, which have also worsened due to the corona lockdowns in China. 77.2 percent of the companies complained about bottlenecks or problems in the procurement of preliminary products and raw materials, as the Munich Ifo Institute found out in its company survey.
Industry alone increased its output by 0.3 percent in April, while construction bucked the trend by cutting output by 2.1 percent. In the energy sector, production rose 16.1 percent after a slump in March. Overall, there have recently been noticeable declines in the energy-intensive sectors, said Dekabank economist Andreas Scheuerle. “Obviously, the increase in energy and raw material prices in connection with the war in Ukraine had a significant, negative impact.” LBBW economist Elmar Völker can also see a positive aspect of the development. “At least for the time being there is no slipping into a steep downward spiral,” said the expert. “As long as the situation in Ukraine does not escalate again, there is a prospect of stabilization over the summer.”
