BMany in NATO were surprised when they saw the news from Kyiv on Friday afternoon: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy applied for Ukraine’s membership in the alliance, even under the “accelerated procedure”. It is uncertain whether Jens Stoltenberg was also surprised. When the NATO Secretary General appeared before the press in Brussels in the evening to react to the Russian annexation of further occupied territories in Ukraine, he did not mention the request himself.
When asked about it, he repeated the standard phrases on the subject: that every democracy in Europe has the right to apply for membership, that the Alliance’s door is open, that Ukraine is free to choose its own path, and that the thirty allies in consensus on enlargement. Then came the crucial statement: “Our focus now is to support Ukraine directly, to help Ukraine defend itself against the brutal Russian invasion.”
That sentence was tantamount to a shake of the head. Translated into politics, it read: Not now! The same message came from London and Washington shortly afterwards. “We are now focused on practical measures to support Ukraine’s efforts on the ground, not a trial in Brussels,” a UK government spokesman said. Jake Sullivan, US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, said the best thing to do now is to give Ukraine practical support in the war. The process in Brussels should start at “another time”. This consonance at least spoke for a lightning-fast agreement, if not for a well-prepared one.
Selenskyj sees Sweden and Finland as role models
Annalena Baerbock revealed the actual motive behind it. Although Ukraine will continue to be supported in its right to self-defense, at the same time everything will be done “to ensure that NATO is not drawn into this war,” said the German Foreign Minister. This is the common red line that the allies agreed on immediately after Russia’s attack on Ukraine: the alliance itself should not become a party to the war. But it would be automatically if the member states now comply with the request from Kyiv. An armed attack against a member state is considered an “attack against them all” – this is the core of the duty of assistance in Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
There will therefore certainly not be an “accelerated procedure” for admission. Selenskyj cited Sweden and Finland as role models for this, which held their accession protocol in their hands four weeks after their application – and a kowtow to Turkish President Erdogan. Almost all member states have already ratified it, although Turkey has not yet. It was not entirely clear on Monday how Allianz would proceed in the case of Ukraine. Initially, there was a wait for Zelenskyj’s application to be officially handed over; this should happen no later than Tuesday. Because of the political explosiveness, it could be that the defense ministers will discuss it first when they meet in Brussels next week.
Modernization of the armed forces even without accession
Nine eastern member states issued a joint statement on Sunday. “We firmly support the decision of the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit on Ukraine’s future membership,” it said. That was understood in Brussels as a signal of solidarity with Kyiv. However, the states – the “Bucharest Nine” group without Hungary, but also with North Macedonia – did not comment on the next steps.
In addition, the 2008 resolution provided for a “Membership Action Plan” for the aspiring Ukraine and Georgia, which both states were never offered. Selenskyj is no longer interested in it. The two Scandinavian countries would also be included in the alliance without such a plan, he said on Friday.
The Western NATO countries, including Germany, had always postponed such an action plan. Although it would not create a legal obligation to defend Ukraine, it would create a moral obligation – that is how it has always been justified internally. Officially, however, it was argued that even without this formal instrument, work is being done to bring the Ukrainian armed forces into line with Western standards. At the most recent summit in Madrid, the allies then decided on an “enhanced support package” with non-lethal aid; The Member States only supply arms bilaterally. They also pledged to help Ukraine modernize its armed forces to “strengthen long-term interoperability.”
All this is no longer enough for Selenskyj. In fact, Ukraine shows every day that it can handle more Western weapon systems in parallel than any other member. But that doesn’t change the red line that was drawn on February 24: NATO itself doesn’t want to become a party to the war.
