DThe Robert Koch Institute (RKI) assumes around 4500 deaths from heat this year, which puts the number at a comparable level as in 2015, 2019 and 2020. In the record summer of 2018, an estimated 8,000 people died due to the high temperatures. However, these assessments are associated with a high degree of uncertainty. For the year 2022 – the fourth warmest summer since weather records began in 1881 – the estimated interval given by the RKI is between 2100 and 7000 deaths. In total, almost 20,000 people fell victim to the heat between 2018 and 2020, as scientists from the RKI had previously estimated in cooperation with the Federal Environment Agency and the German Weather Service. According to them, there was no significantly increased heat-related mortality for the year 2021.
Not all died from heat stroke
The year 2020 had many hot weeks, comparable to the record summer of 2018, but the temperatures were sometimes lower. It is usually very hot, especially in the south of Germany. However, the heat-related mortality is not necessarily higher there than in the other parts of the country, which, according to the RKI, could possibly be due to an adapted behavior of the population.
Not all heat deaths died from obvious consequences of high temperatures, such as heat stroke or lack of water. The reasons are manifold, explains the RKI in its report: Numerous people already suffered from cardiovascular or lung diseases. In most cases, this underlying disease is then recorded as the cause of death, although the heat could have contributed to the death. That is why the RKI estimates the number of heat deaths using statistical methods.
No “heat peaks” in corona deaths
In order to estimate mortality, the RKI also took into account the number of corona deaths as an independent cause of excess mortality for the summer of 2022 – unlike in 2020 and 2021, since the number of corona deaths in the first summers of the pandemic was comparatively small. However, the Covid 19 mortality does not show any characteristic “heat peaks”, writes the institute.
“It can be assumed that climate change will continue to lead to more periods of extreme heat in Germany in the future, which can entail far-reaching health risks,” explain the experts from the RKI. They are in favor of prompt monitoring of heat-related mortality, if possible with high regional resolution – in order to be able to identify risks quickly and prevent them. There is a small success: This year’s estimate of heat-related deaths was carried out for the first time in the current year.
