“Russia’s inability or deliberate failure to strengthen Assad’s regime despite the rapid advance of opposition forces across the country will also damage Russia’s credibility as a reliable and effective security partner around the world.”says the analysis. “This, in turn, will have negative consequences for Putin’s ability to rally global support for his desired goal of a multipolar world order.”
Assad himself – who, according to the Kremlin, Russia claims to have “granted asylum on humanitarian grounds” after fleeing Syria – may have survived, the ISW comments. However, Moscow did not achieve its actual goal of preventing Assad's loss of power. It is also questionable to what extent Russia can now maintain its strategically important military presence in the region. According to ISW, Russian influence in favor of Assad since 2015 is likely to make it extremely difficult for the Russians to establish a good relationship with the strengthened opposition forces in the country.
