Dhe year 2022 was supposed to be the year of recovery and upswing. After two years of Corona, supply chain problems and now war in Europe, the longing for normality and economic security is immense. Unfortunately, that hope is fading from month to month. In fact, there is a risk of a hot autumn and a cold winter – and the beginning of an economic downturn that will shrink the German prosperity pie.
Finance Minister Lindner (FDP) sees the danger of “an economic crisis that has to be taken very seriously” and warns of up to “five years of shortages”. The industry association BDI only expects economic growth of 1.5 percent and fears even worse if Putin cuts gas supplies further.
A few percent alarmism has to be deducted from both Kassandra-callers because Lindner has to persuade his cabinet colleagues to economize and the BDI wants to slow down the wage demands of the unions. In essence, however, the analysis is correct: inflation and interest rate hikes, corona and supply chain problems, gas shortages and trouble with China – these are ingredients for a crisis cocktail that has not existed in Germany for a long time.
There is no guarantee that there will be a severe economic slump, because the labor market is intact and companies have work to do. But he can no longer be ruled out.
In view of the expensive food and energy costs, it is foreseeable that the federal government will continue to relieve the burden on citizens despite scarce resources. The first proposals for this are on the table, and it is to be hoped that the coalition partners have learned from the mistakes of their first package, which cost almost 30 billion euros: Instead of spending the money with the watering can for a tank discount, 9-euro ticket and other things or less popular projects, the funds must flow as directly as possible to the needy groups in winter, preferably in the form of direct payments.
In addition, the coalition must finally start cutting unnecessary spending. In the coalition agreement, she had promised the supposed progress alliance. In fact, Lindner has more than enough to deal with turning down requests for additional spending.