The heat pump market is showing signs of weakness

Dhe demand for oil and gas heating in Germany has skyrocketed since it became known that Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck intends to ban the installation of such devices that run solely on fossil fuels from the beginning of 2024. Now the heating engineers are increasingly having delivery difficulties because of the sales.

The Stuttgart-based manufacturer Bosch, one of the market leaders in Germany, admits that customers who order an oil heating system today often cannot be supplied in good time before the previously planned deadline at the end of the year. “We are currently talking about a delivery time of around eight months,” Bosch told FAS on request. “For most inquiries, it will actually no longer be possible to deliver oil-fired boilers this year,” said a company spokeswoman.

Exceptions would only be made for cases of average. Such emergencies would be brought forward so that customers with defective heaters would not be left out in the cold. The competitor Viessmann, also a large supplier, currently states delivery times of four to five months for oil heating systems. With gas heaters, the waiting times are shorter.

“We are finding it increasingly difficult to convince customers to buy a heat pump”

In the first quarter, sales of oil heating systems in Germany doubled compared to the previous year. The devices are actually just a niche product, accounting for just 7 percent of total sales. But many homeowners with an older oil heating system in the basement apparently want to quickly replace it with a new one. They fear that from next year they will only be able to buy a climate-friendly but much more expensive electric heat pump. “If you want to ban the Germans from something, then they will buy it all the more,” says a manufacturer laconically.

In the previous boom market for heat pumps, a surprising reluctance to buy among customers is becoming apparent. The Association of Heating Engineers BDH this week reported sharply rising sales figures for the first three months of the year. However, industry representatives are concerned about the significantly reduced number of applications for state heat pump purchase subsidies. So far, the state has subsidized the purchase of heat pumps by up to 35 percent.

The applications for funding that interested parties for heat pumps submit to the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) are regarded in industry as a leading indicator of demand in the heating market. “The decline in Bafa numbers is a clear warning signal,” says manufacturer circles. Customers are unsettled by the fierce political dispute over Habeck’s heating law. “That slows down climate protection in the building sector.”

The number of Bafa subsidy applications for the purchase of heat pumps has consistently been under 10,000 a month since the beginning of the year. From March to December last year, on the other hand, the number of applications was always in the five-digit range, and in the summer even temporarily in the six-digit range. The federal government and industry have actually set the goal that half a million heat pumps will be installed in Germany every year from 2024.

“We are finding it increasingly difficult to convince customers to buy a heat pump,” says a leading German heating installer. The share of heat pumps in the business has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year.

The Federal Ministry of Economics, on the other hand, says on request that the decline in Bafa funding applications is expected to be only a temporary phenomenon. Many waited for the current reform of the subsidy policy and are counting on the prices for heat pumps falling in the future.

Meanwhile, there are signs of a shift in the struggle over the controversial heating law. Economics Minister Habeck has indicated that a later entry into force than January 1, 2024 would be acceptable to him. The industry, several federal states and the municipal utilities, among others, are committed to this. On Friday, the Federal Council will deal with the planned amendment to the Building Energy Act.