Trump wants rare earth: Which coveted raw materials slumber in Ukraine

Von den 15 Milliarden Dollar, die die US-Investmentbank Blackrock für den Aufbau einer ukrainischen Wiederaufbaubank organisieren wollte, hat man seit der Ankündigung im Januar vorigen Jahres nicht mehr viel gehört. Schneller ging es mit der Umsetzung der vor Wochenfrist vorgetragenen Forderung von US-Präsident Donald Trump, die Ukraine möge amerikanischen Unternehmen im Gegenzug für Militärhilfe den Zugriff auf ihre beträchtlichen Vorkommen an Seltenen Erden ermöglichen. Es dauerte es nur wenige Tage, bis der neue Finanzminister Scott Bessent dem ukrainischen Präsidenten Wolodymyr Selenskyj zur Wochenmitte in Kiew den Vertragsentwurf in die Hände drückte.

Seltene Erden, die in großen Mengen für Handys, Elektroautos, Windkraftanlagen und Computer benötigt werden und vielfach aus China stammen, sind nicht das einzige, was die Ukraine Trump zu bieten hat. Kiews Außenminister Andriy Sybiha hob Möglichkeiten der Teilnahme amerikanischer Firmen am Wiederaufbau hervor: „Dies wird eines der größten Projekte dieses Jahrhunderts und eine bedeutsame Chance für unsere Verbündeten sein.“

European business representatives are already worried about being exploited in the Century deal in Kiev. In Berlin, Eastern Committee Chair Cathrina Claas-Mühlhäuser, financial aid for the reconstruction of the country, demanded more to be linked to the participation of German and European companies. In Vienna, the chairman of the industrial association, Georg Knill, warns that it is now a matter of “careful to ensure that raisin picking in Ukraine is not disadvantageous in Europe.”

With the US group Westinghouse, Kiev has already appointed the construction of nuclear power plants. Also in the purchase of two mottled Soviet nuclear reactors from Bulgaria, which was decided by the parliament in Kiev this week, American interests are likely to play a role: Westinghouse has a new building order for a nuclear power plant in Bulgaria in its pocket. The expected sales proceeds of at least 600 million euros that the government in Sofia would help would help financing – as well as reduce the budget deficit for now and thus pave the way into the euro. In Kiev, meanwhile, they rely on European help for the payment of the power plant parts called “Russian scrap”.

The economic interest of the United States on Ukraine is new. The goods traffic between the two countries has not yet been remarkable. Last year, US exports added up to $ 1.7 billion after an overview of the American government, and imports from Ukraine to $ 1.2 billion. That was about three percent of the Ukrainian export of $ 41.7 billion. Ukrainian trade with Germany, especially with the EU, was a multiple of the US business.

However, America's military and political weight is much greater than that of the EU during peace talks with the Russian aggressor. Accordingly, Trump's Ukraine presents the invoice for the US support: “They have extremely valuable country in relation to rare earths, oil and gas,” said the broadcaster “Fox News” with reference to the “hundreds of billion dollars” Washington support. “We have to get something. We cannot continue to pay this money ”. According to the Kiel Institute for the global economy, the US share of the entire Ukraine aid for the military, household and humanitarians from January 2022 to December last year was $ 114 billion. Trump said Selenskyj was ready to grant the USA access to raw materials worth $ 500 billion in exchange for weapons. However, the Ukrainian president primarily demands security guarantees. He only spoke to Finance Minister Bessent about minerals, Selenskyj said on Wednesday.

Minerals has the second largest country in Europe after Russia. According to the Association of Ukrainian geologists, cited from the scientific service of the German Stall, Ukraine covers only 0.4 percent of the earth's surface, but has about five percent of the global mineral resources. Eight of the 17 raw materials assessed by the EU as strategically important are grown there, including aluminum, manganese, graphite and titanium. European interests in raw material partnerships with Kyiv are correspondingly large.

Other minerals such as the lithium important for battery production are hardly or not developed. “The Ukrainian raw material deposits are underexplored, unexpectedly and competitive,” the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation sums up the situation in an analysis.

In fact, a large part of the occurrence is in competitive or Russia – and thus economically currently not usable – areas in the east. “42 percent of metal reserves, 33 percent of rare earths, 63 percent of coal, 11 percent of the oil and 20 percent of the natural gas are under Russian control,” writes the Kiev Portal “Ukraine Business News”.

This alone complicates access and puts conjectures about the value of the Ukrainian mineral occurrence of supposedly double-digit trillion dollars. At the same time, it shows the dimension of potential losses of Ukraine, which would cause permanent regional detections to Russia after a ceasefire organized by Trump.

But even in the areas that are not directly affected by the war, the minerals are not rounded down on the world market. The Grafitmine, which has been operated in 1934, has been closed in the Zavalievsky, 300 kilometers south of Kiev. The Australian majority owner Volt Resources made high electricity costs, outdated production infrastructure and increasing logistics costs. Whether you put the mine back into operation after the winter, one of the largest graphite deposits known in Europe, depends on the price and demand, CEO Prashann Chintawar told the S&P Global Commodity Insights. Fast profits are rather not to be expected. Even if the Association of the Ukrainian mining industry in Trump's advance sees a chance to develop critical metals.