Trump’s possible arrest: ammunition for the primary campaign

Dhe expected charges against Donald Trump for having paid hush money during the 2016 election campaign have historic dimensions. It would be the first criminal case ever against a former American president. But Trump’s advisors are currently less concerned with the history books than with the question of what effects the legal dispute would have on the 2024 election campaign. Does it damage Trump’s eligibility? Or can the case be used to mobilize the Republican electorate in the primary?

The legal question is whether Trump violated campaign finance laws by paying hush money to porn actress Stormy Daniels. The payment as such is not illegal, but it could be assessed in New York State as improper funding of his campaign. The indictment – which could be followed by others, including in connection with January 6, 2021, i.e. the storming of the Capitol – could severely damage Trump from the perspective of his internal party opponents and potential rivals in the fight for the Republican presidential candidacy.

Competing against incumbent Joe Biden, who has yet to formally declare his candidacy, moderate Republicans and independent voters may be inclined to view Trump as a troubled candidate. This in turn should deter donors and prevent election recommendations from the party.

Take Advantage of the “Witch Hunt”.

Trump’s campaign team is trying to turn the tables: his advisers, assembled in Mar-a-Lago, are pursuing a strategy of using what the former president calls the investigation “witch hunts” to rally the party behind Trump. The logic cannot be dismissed out of hand: numerous possible challengers, including former Vice President Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, Trump’s temporary UN ambassador, condemned the actions of the Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg.

Only Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida and Trump’s most promising rival, used his competitor’s legal troubles for a dig: he couldn’t say anything about why a porn actress was being paid hush money to buy her to keep quiet about an alleged affair, he alluded to his own virtuous way of life. But even De Santis could not avoid sharply attacking the Democrat Bragg: He was financed by the investor George Soros and used the public prosecutor’s office as a political weapon, he was angry.

The matter poses a dilemma for Trump’s rivals: as much as they bet the litigation will damage the former president, they can’t say so publicly. Because if they alienate Trump supporters, they can bury their own ambitions. Meanwhile, in Mar-a-Lago, people are reminded that this is not the first “witch hunt” against Trump – and that he has always survived it: the “Grab’em by the pussy” recording, the Russia affair, the ” perfect” call to Volodymyr Zelenskyj and much more.

Dinner with a Holocaust denier

In fact, Trump could stylize himself as a victim again with an indictment and try to give his campaign a boost. That was the case last summer, when the Justice Department ordered a raid on Mar-a-Lago and the FBI recovered classified information from the former president’s mansion. This angered Trump’s base and mobilized Republicans to defend Trump.

The attention suited him in a way. At the time, there was rumbling in the party, with quite a few rumored that Trump’s time was over and that the “Grand Old Party” must now look ahead – a mood that intensified over the course of the year when that of the former president entered the field skilful Senate candidates failed almost without exception in the congressional elections.

Shortly thereafter, even Trump’s political supporters despaired of his political instincts: The reason was a dinner in Mar-a-Lago, which the right-wing Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes attended. There was also criticism of his campaign team, which should have prevented the meeting, which was widely criticized in the party. But after the house search, the critical voices fell silent, and the ranks behind Trump closed again.

However, the victim role strategy of his advisors in the event of an indictment is not a sure-fire success: Trump is known for his chaos. When he spread the word on social media last Saturday that they wanted to arrest him and called for a protest, his team was surprised by the call. Trump’s legal advisers and the campaign team do not always coordinate. And when in doubt, Trump will do whatever he wants anyway.