Dhe short-term trading prices for natural gas continue to reach comparatively low values. On Monday, the price for deliveries in the next hour temporarily even fell below zero and turned negative. This is considered an unusual situation in the industry, which can be attributed to well-stocked warehouses, mild temperatures and, at the same time, high deliveries of, above all, liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the short term, a lower demand will probably meet a high supply in retail and lower prices. LNG ships have recently been jammed off the coast of Spain.
The Berlin energy economist Lion Hirth from the private Hertie School points out the difference between prices in short-term and long-term trading. “The low gas prices are the result of an extraordinary situation, but that says nothing about the coming year,” he told the FAZ. For future deliveries, the trading prices are significantly higher again.
The wholesale prices per megawatt hour (TTF) range from around 30 euros for delivery the next day to just under 100 euros for delivery in November and up to 140 to 150 euros for delivery in half a year. Long-term costs have a greater impact on consumer prices as utilities purchase their gas volumes evenly and over the long term. Fluctuations in end customer prices are therefore unlikely. The gas quantities traded on the exchanges only ever reflect part of the market. However, over-the-counter transactions are also based on trading prices.
Klaus Müller, President of the Federal Network Agency, is following developments closely. “Energy price developments are and will remain volatile and unpredictable, but I find it remarkable that the gas day-ahead price was below 30 euros yesterday and the November futures price was below 100 euros,” he said on Twitter on Tuesday. Every day, his authority provides information about the status of the gas supply. Accordingly, the temperatures in Germany were 1 degree above the annual average from 2018 to 2021. Despite the current low trading prices, the network agency expects that companies and private consumers will have to adjust to significantly higher gas prices.
