This week will be key to the development of the Bitcoin price. The results of Nvidia, a tech locomotive in recent months, will be published on Wednesday. It will also be necessary to rely on the macroeconomic figures published Thursday (US GDP) and Friday (inflation PCE) to catalyze prices. Until then, the balance situation could last.
Bitcoin flexes but does not break, for how long?
We are Monday, February 24, 2025, and the Bitcoin price is currently evolving around $ 95,000. Our latest BTC analysis dates back to February 11, 2025, when its price was at 98,000 dollars. Since then, the king of cryptocurrencies has continued to work under the psychological barrier of $ 100,000, testing the mental resilience of investors.
While we are playing in a period which, historically, is conducive to the growth of the Crypto market, investors' psychology remains mixed. Some abandon the market and envisage a break, while others remain anchored on their positions, accepting a new test that this bullish cycle could impose on them.
It remains difficult, at this stage, to prove one or the other of these camps right, as the macroeconomics are unstable. It undergoes the effects of the announcements of the new American presidential administration and the vagaries of a US economy which, despite a restrictive monetary policy, has been solid.
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However, the fight against inflation is still not completed, and signals of economic slowdowns seem to appear, which could continue to weigh in 2025 on the risky markets, including Bitcoin.
On the derivative market side, open interests (OI) have deflated since the post-electoral episode in the United States. However, we remain on high levels of interest, indicating that there is still, to date, interest in this market.
Funding costs (Funding Rates) have found a cruising area in recent weeks. An excess nevertheless developed on Thursday, February 21, as the $ 100,000 approaches, quickly punished by a reversal catalyzed by the announcement of the Exchange bybit hack.
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Since this famous event, Bitcoin has been ranked second in terms of daily volume on the derivative markets, with $ 21.7 billion. This is not a standard situation, since King is generally the most traded crypto asset on these markets. This state of affairs is probably a consequence of the rebalancing movements that occur on Ethereum.
In terms of capitalization, Bitcoin remains, unsurprisingly, the undisputed king of the crypto ecosystem, occupying first place in the ranking with a capitalization of $ 1,895 billion.
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin / USDT | -0.40 % | -0.90 % | -8.70 % |
| Eth / bitcoin | -4.40 % | -2.50 % | -11.40 % |
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Bitcoin, a new 200 -day side phase?
The BTC price is still evolving in a range between 91,000 and 108,000 dollars. If you follow us regularly, you already know the intermediate key areas of this side consolidation phase: $ 104,000, $ 100,000 and $ 95,500.
It is this last area that we have been working since the beginning of February, which so far allows to hold and return prices closest to 100,000 dollars. It is complex to analyze the action of prices within a range, since these equilibrium zones are subject to sometimes erratic variations.
The most effective strategy is to observe the reaction of prices on extreme terminals, with a polarity fixed on the middle zone. Today, with a price close to 95,500 dollars, the probabilities of a return to the low terminal are high. This scenario is reinforced by repeated failures to rebound properly on the intermediate support.
So, It will be necessary to reintegrate the upper part of the range with a fence above the balance in time unit 3 days to overthrow the polarity and again promote bullish hypotheses. If the BTC fails to develop this fence, the eyes will naturally turn to $ 91,000.
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By taking the time to observe the Bollinger strips, you can see that they align perfectly with the extreme terminals that we have defined. This finalization of the BB cycle implies that the next movement, validated by a fence outside the range, could lead to a reopening of the latter, triggering a new phase of volatility.
If the ranges are more likely to contain prices rather than giving in, a downstream break, validated by a failure of reintegration, would confirm a significant deterioration of the upward dynamics. This would also confirm a rupture of the mobile average at 20 weeks, which is currently around 92,000 dollars.
Thus, by following the upward dynamics represented by the mobile averages, the most obvious level would send prices towards Lamoyenne at 50 weeks, which currently revolves around 75,000 dollars.
Bitcoin course graph in 3 days
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In summary, Bitcoin still evolves inside its range, but in a negative polarity which attracts prices to the low terminal located at 91,000 dollars. Unable to cross 100,000 dollars again, the risk of downstream rupture increases, with downward -down targets close to $ 75,000.
So, do you think the BTC can resume the $ 100,000? Do not hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we meet next week for a new Bitcoin analysis.
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Sources: tradingview, quince, glassnod
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Investments in cryptocurrencies are risky. There is no guaranteed high yield, a product with high performance potential implies a high risk. This risk taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your ability to lose part of this savings. Do not invest if you are not ready to lose all or part of your capital
Analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years I carry out an in -depth watch in the crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping the financial markets to the eye.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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