It didn’t take long for users of the crypto platform Polymarket to start betting on when Telegram CEO Pavel Durov would be released. According to the odds offered by the crypto platform, it is highly unlikely that he will be released in the coming days.
Will Pavel Durov be released by August 31? It's not looking good, says Polymarket
Saturday night was marked by the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durovby the Air Transport Gendarmerie.
The founder of the social network was barely arrested at Le Bourget airportin the Paris region, that The prediction market platform Polymarket has taken up the subject. Since yesterday, it has been offering punters the chance to guess the date on which the Franco-Russian computer scientist will be released.
👉 How to use Polymarket and make bets with crypto?
While the chances of Pavel Durov being released before August 31 were around 50% on Sunday morning according to bookmakers, The rating has continued to decline, falling below 25% last nightAt the time of writing, this value has stabilized at around 31%.
By 11 a.m. on August 26, Polymarket punters had already wagered nearly $100,000 to answer the question: Will Pavel Durov be released in August?
The decline in the odds for a possible release is mainly due to the development of the situation surrounding the arrest of Pavel Durov. While some expected a police custody of a few hours, this was extended this morning..
The CEO of Telegram, accused of letting users of his messaging app commit crimes and offences with impunity, could well remain in police custody until Wednesday evening. If that were the case, a judge would have a difficult choice to make: either jail the Telegram CEO or release him.
In the first case, there would then be no chance of seeing him anywhere other than behind bars. He would be officially placed in preventive detention, until the national cyber unit of the gendarmerie and the national anti-fraud office complete their investigation.
TradingView: The essential tool for traders – Receive $15 bonus
Polymarket, a reliable indicator for this type of event?
On Polymarket, users can bet for or against a situation. Typically, Bookmakers offer odds that reflect public opinion or are based on similar past events..
This is particularly the case for the American presidential election scheduled for November, where bets on the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris reached a volume of almost 600 million dollars.
The ratings of the two candidates for the presidency of the United States reflect well the voting intentions of the American populationFor the moment, it is the Democratic candidate, the current vice-president of the country, who would be ahead of her Republican rival by a small point: 50% for Kamala Harris, against 49% for Donald Trump.
💡 Also in the news — France: Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov arrested at Le Bourget airport, TON collapses
For the possible release of Pavel Durov, It is possible to imagine that Polymarket punters relied on previous facts.like those who hit Tornado Cash.
Alexey Perstevone of the protocol's major developers, was arrested in August 2022 in the Netherlands for reasons relatively similar to those of the founder of Telegram. It was not until April 26, 2023 that he was released on bail, before being sentenced to a 64-month prison term.
Cryptoast Research: Don't Spoil This Bull Run, Surround Yourself With Experts
Source : Polymarket
The #1 Crypto Newsletter 🍞
Receive a daily crypto news recap by email 👌
What you need to know about affiliate links. This page may feature investment-related assets, products, or services. Some links in this article may be affiliate links. This means that if you purchase a product or sign up for a site from this article, our partner pays us a commission. This allows us to continue to provide you with original and useful content. There is no impact on you and you can even get a bonus for using our links.
Investing in cryptocurrencies is risky. Cryptoast is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and could not be held responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused following the use of a good or service highlighted in this article. Investments related to crypto-assets are risky by nature, readers must do their own research before taking any action and only invest within the limits of their financial capacities. This article does not constitute investment advice.
AMF recommendations. There is no guaranteed high return, a product with a high return potential implies a high risk. This risk-taking must be in line with your project, your investment horizon and your ability to lose part of these savings. Do not invest if you are not prepared to lose all or part of your capital.
To go further, read our Financial Situation, Media Transparency and Legal Notices pages.
Surprised by the rise of crypto-assets in the late 2010s, I started to closely follow this sector that fascinates me to the highest degree. When I am not in football stadiums, rugby or handball halls, I work on writing relevant articles about cryptocurrencies and more broadly, Web3.
Zacharie Tazrout
40 articles
